Wireless Broadband Evolution

1.Outline

• Pre-evolution Networks
• Wireless Network Convergence
• Evolution Signposts
  • Technology Roadmaps
  • End-user Perspective
• Market Challenges

2.Wi-Fi Network

• Over 25 million Wi-Fi AP⁄routers shipped in 2005
• Wi-Fi standard in nearly all laptops
• Recent In-Stat survey of US IT decision-makers: >70% say they have Wi-Fi deployed in their businesses
• In-Stat estimates there were over commercial 100.8k worldwide hotspots in 2005 and will nearly double by end of 2009

3. Wireless Mesh Network

• Meshing extends reach of Wi-Fi and WiMAX
• Wi-Fi- based Mesh Networks are starting to appear in municipal deployments
• Cities across US putting out RFPs for muni broadband
• Content providers like Google want to be part of this space
• Opportunity for WiMAX in backhaul
• Trials⁄RFP' s - San Francisco, Tempe, Philadelphia, New Orleans, etc.

4.Cellular 3G Network Diagram

• Peak 3G infrastructure deployments occurred in 2004 - 2005. There are now over 2M cellular base stations worldwide, including over 300K WCDMA.
• There are currently over 2.3B cellular subscribers worldwide, and by 2010 this number will be 3.6B. Over 100M current subscribers connect via a 3G technology, and by 2010 it will be 816M.

5.WiMAX (Fixed⁄Mobile) Network " Migrating from proprietary systems to standards based systems

• Operating in multiple spectrums, both licensed and license-exempt
• Early deployments expected to be in backhaul
• Mobility will differentiate it from cable modem⁄DSL
• In-Stat estimates 4.7k WiMAX base station shipments in 2005
• 802.16e, mobile standard approved end of 2005, but no equipment expected until at least the second half of 2006
• WiBro currently has trial deployments in S. Korea

7. Wireless Broadband Evolution = Technology & Market Convergence

8.Wireless Broadband Evolution = Technology & Market Convergence (Continued)

• Starting to see interest in device vendors and service providers to offer connectivity over various network technologies
• Users want to remain connected as they move between different environments
• The development of any service⁄technology needs to balance the compete⁄co-exist factor of other wireless technologies

9. Wireless Broadband Evolution

10. Signposts: Technology Roadmap and End-User Attitudes

11. Wi-Fi Device Roadmap: 1999- 2004

12.Wi-Fi Device Roadmap: 1999- 2004(Continued)

• Wi-Fi into wide variety of smaller and smaller networking form factors
• 802.11b products launched in 99 - at first large & bulky
• Late 2000 and 2001: Turning point for consumer market w⁄ intro of wireless router device
• 2003: 802.11g products launch and Intel pushes Centrino mobile platform
• 2004: Wi-Fi clearly being integrated into non-traditional networking devices - 802.11g is mature
• Late 2004: pre-N MIMO products launch

13.Wi-Fi Device Roadmap: 2005- 2009

14. Wi-Fi Device Roadmap: 2005- 2009(Continued)

• Wi-Fi moving away from Traditional Networking
• 2005: Integrated into Nintendo DS and Sony PlayStation Portable handheld gaming consoles
• 2005: digital cameras and MP3 players w⁄ integrated Wi-Fi released
• 2006: Xbox 360 features wireless gaming adapter peripheral - expectations for embedded Wi-Fi in Sony PlayStation3 and Nintendo Revolution
• 2008-09: Expectations for Wi-Fi embedded into cellular phones on large scale

15.State of 3G - Device Roadmap

16.State of 3G - Device Roadmap(Continued)

• Embedded cellular modems are starting to appear where only Wi-Fi has gone before - laptops, inventory management systems
• IMS is driving the cellular network toward all IP with SIP based all IP devices expected to start appearing in 2008
• Machine-2-Machine (M2M) usage is growing for cellular, providing carriers with extra revenue

17.WiMAX: End-User Device Roll-Out

18.WiMAX: End-User Device Roll-Out(Continued)

• WiMAX device roadmap dependent on service provider rollouts and vise-versa
• Late 2005: 802.16e Mobile WiMAX ratified
• 2006 year of trials, WiBro expected to kick-start Mobile WiMAX
• 2007-2008 WiMAX possible form factors - embedded in laptops, cellular phones, deployment of micro and pico base stations

19.Technology Comparison

20.Demand-Side Views on Wireless Broadband

21.Devices Used for Wireless Data Access

• 80% of mobile professionals surveyed responded using wireless data
• Nearly 72% use a laptop or computer
• 39.6% report using mobile phone for wireless data
• Mobile professionals traveling with multiple wireless enabled devices

22.How Laptop Users Connect

• Wi-Fi dominates laptop data connections
• Very small percent uses only cellular networks

23.How Users Pay for Wi-Fi Connectivity

• 45% of respondents said they pay for Wi-Fi data access
• Those just paying on a “per-use basis only” least common, most users paying for a connection have a monthly subscription
• Free still plays a big role with 36%

24.Influence of Wi-Fi on Travel

• The availability of Wi-Fi access is starting to play a role in travel plans
• Only 39% said availability of Wi-Fi plays no role in travel plans

25.Wi-Fi Versus Cellular Data

• Wi-Fi has greater satisfaction throughput
• Cellular has greater satisfaction for coverage
• Both have similar satisfaction for price
• Ranked on scale 1-5, 5 = Completely satisfied, 1 = Completely dissatisfied

26.Why Wireless Data Isn' t Used

• Lack of need and high cost remain two largest deterrents
• Overall good awareness of wireless broadband
• Performance issues were not major deterrents

27.Market Challenges

• How will the various wireless broadband technologies compete with or complement each other?
• What is the technology life-cycle?
• What is the timeframe for market adoption?
• What role will end-user devices play in the evolution?
• Which service providers will deploy which technologies?
• What will be the winning service provider business models?

Research Service Overview

Lead Analyst Team