PowerMatrix

Abstract

Darnell' s PowerMatrix is a unique discrete power semiconductor and analog IC sales forecasting and market analysis toolkit and a quarterly market update service. This interactive service is available on a secure web site and provides unparalleled modeling power for the development of business cases for new product development or market entry strategies. Users are empowered to change forecasting and other analysis assumptions quickly and efficiently. By providing detailed forecasts from Darnell Group' s extensive power electronics markets database as a common starting point for all analyses, the PowerMatrix lets users quickly develop a detailed business case, saving days or even weeks of valuable time.

Component analysis takes place at a detailed level. Forecasts for discrete devices are provided in terms of both voltage ratings and current ratings. Each category of ICs is also sub- divided as appropriate. For example, linear regulators are subdivided into positive, negative and LDOs

How it Works

• 1. The opening menu of Darnell' s PowerMatrix lets users open a previously developed model for further consideration or start a new model. The Opening Menu also allows users to set preferences for the currency to be used in the analysis and the specific component categories to be included. Once the user preferences have been set, they are saved from session to session.
• 2. The Interactive Forecast Assumptions screens are used to select the market segments to be modeled, to view the default forecast assumptions, and to make any desired changes to the base year market sizes or growth rate assumptions for the various segments included in the model. Forecasts are organized in two ways; by Power Converter Type and by Application Devices. Users also have the option of creating their own Custom Forecast. The Power Converter and Application Device forecasts are provided in enough detail to arrive at a unique power architecture. All forecasts are for worldwide sales and begin with the base year sales in millions of units. In addition, growth rates are provided for the five-year forecast period. All quantities on this screen can be modified as desired by the user. In addition, Market Trends Summaries are provided that summarize recent developments in the markets being analyzed.
• 3. The Interactive BOM (bill of materials) Structures screens enable the user to change the BOMs for the various power converter or application segments being modeled, or to define a new component category. An "average" bill of materials is presented for each market area being analyzed. In some cases, fractional numbers may appear. For example, if part of the converters employ a forward topology and others employ a half-bridge, the number of power MOSFETs in an "average" design may be "1.6". Users can view the "BOM Assumptions" which describe the assumed purpose of each component included in the specific bill of materials.
• 4. The Pricing Screen presents average selling prices (general price levels) are given for a "typical" component using the preferred currency. This generic price level does not take into account pricing variations as a result of various package styles, or other factors. Users can adjust the pricing levels to accurately depict the specific market segment being modeled. In addition, users can model annual changes in pricing levels for each year in the 5-year forecast period.
• 5. After the various model parameters have been selected, the Detailed Results interface presents the resulting baseline unit, pricing and dollar forecasts for a five-year period.
• 6. Once the baseline forecasts have been established, the PowerMatrix provides users with extensive modeling tools. Risk Assessment tools enable users to perform "best case" and "worst case" analysis for changes in market size projections, changes in market growth rates and changes in pricing. These three dimensions can be modeled simultaneously or independently. Market Share analysis allows users to model anticipated market shares and can be combined with risk assessments to determine "best case" and "worst case" outcomes. Competitive Research is supported by a database of over 25,000 news items, updated every business day with the latest news and developments. At this point, the user can save the complete results and other team members in the company can independently review and comment on the current business model.
• 7. When the business case development process is concluded, the completed model including all Risk Assessments, Market Share analysis, Competitive Research, and so on can be saved for future use. The user has the option to annotate saved models with extensive notes describing the background and purpose of the model. Saved models can be shared with other users across the corporation enabling collaborative development of complex business cases. At any point in the model development process, users can export part or all of the model components. The forecast elements of the model (pricing trends, unit sales and monetary sales) are exported as an Excel file while the Competitive analysis and other "text-based" information is exported as a Word file, facilitating the incorporation of the model information into presentations, reports and so on.