A new report from market analyst Roskill says spot prices for rhenium doubled in 2006 and are now at a historic peak - the result of limited supplies and strong growth in demand from the aerospace sector. Over the last decade, the rise in output has not matched the strong growth in demand from 35,000kg to an estimated 65,000kg, which has come from the development of new superalloys containing rhenium for use in aircraft engines and ground-based gas turbines. The supply-demand balance is likely to tighten further, at least in the short term.

Effects from recycling industry

Roskill says that the balance comes largely from recycled material and stocks from Kazakhstan. Spot prices are expected to continue rising, possibly to US$10,000/kg by 2009, before stabilising at or near this level. In the short term, remaining stocks in Kazakhstan could play a key role in prices.

Increased output expected from top producers

In 2007, Molymet of Chile opened a new molybdenum roaster which could raise rhenium capacity to an estimated 40,000kgpy. Molymet is by far the largest rhenium producer, accounting for about two-thirds of primary rhenium output in 2006. At least 75% of Molymets output is in the form of metallic rhenium that is exported almost entirely to the USA.

The second-largest rhenium supplier is Zhezkazganredmet (Red Met) in Kazakhstan. Output, which is in the form of APR, has increased significantly since the late 1990s from 1,500kgpy to around 8,000kgpy. In 2004/5, shipments from Red Met were disrupted because of a dispute with Kazakhmys, which supplies raw materials.

Potential sources

With the right equipment, a large proportion of primary rhenium can be recovered from flue dusts and gases produced in molybdenum roasters. However, not all molybdenum roasters have rhenium recovery circuits, so an estimated 15,000kgpy of virgin rhenium is lost to the market. This represents an important potential source of rhenium that could be exploited in the event of a serious disruption to supply elsewhere.