Findings from the recently published Semicast report "Under-the-hood Automotive Electronic Systems" suggest that the intelligence and functionality of parking assist systems is set to increase significantly in the short term.

Most people at some point in their driving lives will suffer the notorious "fender bender" , the low speed shunt that damages the bodywork on your car, the one you hit, or both. Be it reversing into another vehicle, a low wall or simply hitting an object you could not see from the driver seat, most fender benders result in some expense, or worse, a potentially costly claim on insurance. For decades these simple parking accidents have been an integral part of driving life, but new technology hitting the roads could soon make such accidents a thing of the past. Welcome to The Car That Parks Itself.

Most parking assist systems in use today are basic passive types, which typically use ultrasonic sensors to measure the distance to objects and obstructions both behind and in front of the vehicle. Typically by using an audible signal of varying pitch and simple visual aids, the system can accurately guide the driver to within an inch of an object. These systems provide reassurance that you are maintaining a safe distance to other vehicles and objects and are very useful for city parking in particular, where space is often at a premium. However basic passive assist systems contain no intelligence and the driver remains responsible for all aspects of the maneuver. Bosch and Valeo are two of the leading suppliers of basic passive assist and to date the systems have been especially popular in Europe.

The evolution of passive parking assist has led to more advanced systems which mix data from the ultrasonic sensors with a rear view camera to display a wide angle image on the display in the center console (typically that of the navigation system). By combining information from the sensors and doing some basic image recognition on the picture, the system can provide on-screen visual cues which guide the driver throughout the maneuver. As with basic passive systems, all aspects of the parking process are under the control of the driver, including steering, braking and throttle and the system merely provides directional guidance and proximity warning.

Now consider taking that functionality to the next level and have the car complete some of the maneuvering itself. If that sounds like the stuff of science fiction, you d be wrong, The Car That Parks Itself is already here. Toyota (with its Intelligent Park Assist) and Honda (with Smart Parking Assist) both already offer cars in Japan with active assist systems. In each case the system itself can identify a suitable parking space and by using radar and proximity sensors buried in the body of the vehicle, can automatically steer the car into the space by controlling the electric power steering system. The driver need only provide minor control of the throttle and brakes.

The attraction and benefits of such automated parking systems are evident and the systems are clearly a natural evolution of the more basic systems. Whether fully automated parking systems are introduced will largely depend on liability issues, but that is most likely to be a barrier in the US more so than say Japan.

Aisin is estimated to be the leading supplier of active parking assist systems and is the main supplier to Toyota. However other suppliers have systems in development, including Bosch, Continental, Hella and Valeo and they will certainly increase their market share in the short term.

It is the opinion of Semicast that basic passive systems using ultrasonic sensors will dominate volumes in the short to medium term, owing to cost sensitivities in many vehicles segments. In the longer term, shipments of basic passive systems are forecast to plateau, as costs of advanced passive systems fall and the benefits of the system become more attractive in a wider range of models. Colin Barnden, principal analyst with Semicast, commented "Approaching 2020, it is forecast that active assist systems will be in the ascendancy, in particular in Japan and West Europe and shipments could overtake those of basic passive systems around 2017 or 2018" .

All this comes together to raise an obvious question. "Forget about parking. How long before you have a car that can completely drive itself?" . Maybe some of the gurus in the auto industry already know the answer to that one.