Transmission and Distribution Report

Abstract

After a surge in 2007 and 2008 the demand in the T&D market has overall remained strong in the first half of 2009 despite the global financial crisis and cuts in expenditure in some countries. Most companies in the T&D market have reported good revenues in the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, indeed several reported record achievements. This is largely because of the surge in 2007 and the first half of 2008 in transmission expenditure, notably in China and the Middle East. Some companies reported low orders, especially large orders, in this period but this must be compared with the exceptionally high performances of two years ago. Bearing in mind that the fourth quarter is cyclically low and the first quarter high, Bill-to-Book was good for all the big players in the first quarter of 2009 and through 2008, at 1.2 to 1.3. However, in some cases Backlog has declined as is used up.

The over-riding need for investment in transmission systems which have been starved of funds for years, the drive for energy efficiency and fiscal stimulus programmes in many countries have so far kept the market reasonably buoyant. The time frame has been advanced to 2015, with transmission and distribution lines lengths and transformer capacity recorded historically from 1970 to 2009, and forecast to 2015. Capex and T&D equipment demand are forecast annually to 2013. This report is an expansion of the previous editions in its analysis of the market, adding two new categories, sub-stations and meters. The following groups are contained in the report. Transformers, switchgear, cables, uninsulated lines, insulators and fittings, HV towers, sub-stations, meters, utility automation and power systems.

Report Scope

The report is a substantial document of 505 pages containing overall analysis of the transmission and distribution systems, chapters dealing with each of 183 individual countries and the detailed statistical tables of line lengths and system capacity. Capital expenditure and market sizes for 10 categories of T&D equipment and business service are sized and forecast for each year from 2008 to 2013.

• 116 network maps.
• A series of tables detailing the international interconnections which are enhancing access to generating capacity for many countries and optimising use of surplus capacity
• The Power Pools now emerging around the world are outlined
• This new emphasis, assembling the network maps, information about the Power Pools and details of interconnections, enables a more comprehensive understanding of the process of interlinking national power systems globally
• A detailed analysis of global transmission and distribution networks which total 5.9 million km in transmission lines and 62.2 million km of distribution lines
• The global transmission market is expanding not only internally but via linking the generating capacity of different countries
• The report examines this country by country and projects growth annually until 2015
• A voltage analysis is provided where possible
• The report also looks at markets for transmission and distribution equipment examining total capital expenditure and sizes individual markets for 8 categories of equipment and business service

Methodology

The methodology of the market size estimates and forecasts of development of the T&D systems consisted of four stages, combining a top-down and a bottom-up approach. This methodology was found to be effective in creating the forecasts of electrical generating capacity in ABS Power Predictor, the companion study to the present volume. This has been augmented with independent forecasts for individual product groups which incorporate import and export data and where available production data.

ABS has now built up a series of over 24 separate forecasts of different components and aspects of the electricity supply industry globally. This collection of separate forecasts is valuable in providing validation of each forecast. For example, a database and forecast has been constructed for power and distribution transformers from commercial data (import, export and production figures). From the T&D Study, we can estimate transformer demand as a constituent of total capex, since we have established how capex is broken down. Each of these separate estimates either confirms of contradicts the other and we can reconcile them.