Housebuilding Market - UK 2009 - 2013

Table of Contents

1. INTRODUCTION 7

2. SUMMARY & FUTURE PROSPECTS 8

3. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 12

• 3.1 GDP 12
• 3.2 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES 13
• 3.3 UNEMPLOYMENT 14
• 3.4 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 14
• 3.5 HOUSING & CONSTRUCTION 15
• 3.6 STERLING 17
• 3.7 POPULATION PROFILE 18
• 3.8 CONCLUSIONS 19

4. THE HOUSING MARKET 20

• 4.1 DEFINITION 20
• 4.2 CONSTRUCTION MARKET OVERVIEW 20
• 4.3 HOUSEBUILDING OVERVIEW 1998-2008 22
• 4.4 HOUSEBUILDING TARGETS AND PERFORMANCE 23
  • 4.4.1 Net Additional Dwellings 24
  • 4.4.2 Starts 30
  • 4.4.3 Completions 33
  • 4.4.4 Sales 35
• 4.5 REGIONAL HOUSEBUILDING - PRIVATE SECTOR 37
  • 4.4.1 Starts 37
  • 4.4.2 Completions 38
  • 4.4.3 Sales 39
• 4.5 REGIONAL HOUSEBUILDING - PUBLIC SECTOR 41
  • 4.5.1 Starts 41
  • 4.5.2 Completions 42
  • 4.5.3 Sales 43
• 4.6 MIX 44
  • 4.6.1 Mix of Housebuilding Completions 44
  • 4.6.2 Overview of Flats Market in UK 45

5. KEY INFLUENCING FACTORS 48

• 5.1 GOVERNMENT REPORT SUMMARIES 48
• 5.2 ECO TOWNS 53
• 5.3 AFFORDABILITY 56
• 5.4 AVERAGE PRICE OF NEW DWELLINGS 58
  • 5.4.1 Regional Variations 59
• 5.5 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS 61
• 5.6 MORTGAGE LENDING 61
• 5.7 HOUSING STOCK 63
• 5.8 LAND 64
  • 5.8.1 Prices and Housing Density 64
  • 5.8.2 Brownfield 66
  • 5.8.3 Land Ownership and Supply 69
  • 5.8.4 Households 70
  • 5.8.5 Housing Stock 72
  • 5.8.6 Urban Regeneration 73
  • 5.8.7 Household Tenure 75

6. THE HOUSEBUILDERS 77

• 6.1 OVERALL MARKET 77
• 6.2 DEFINITIONS 78
  • 6.2.1 National Housebuilders 78
  • 6.2.2 Contractors and Housebuilders 78
  • 6.2.3 Larger Regional Housebuilders 80
  • 6.2.4 Smaller Regional and Local Housebuilders 80
  • 6.2.5 Developers 80
• 6.3 HOUSEBUILDERS MARKET SHARE 81
• 6.4 NATIONAL HOUSEBUILDERS 84
  • 6.4.1 Company Profiles 84
  • 6.4.2 2007/08 Performance Record 98
• 6.5 CONSTRUCTION GROUPS AND HOUSEBUILDERS 99
  • 6.5.1 Introduction 99
  • 6.5.2 Company Profiles 101
• 6.6 DEVELOPERS 104
• 6.7 REGIONAL & LOCAL HOUSEBUILDERS 105
  • 6.7.1 Company Profiles 105

7. CONSTRUCTION ISSUES 109

• 7.1 CODE FOR SUSTAINABLE HOMES 109
• 7.2 MODERN METHODS OF CONSTRUCTION 110
• 7.3 TYPES OF MMC 111
  • 7.3.1 OSM Suppliers 116
  • 7.3.2 The future of MMC 117

TABLES AND CHARTS

• CHART 1 UK HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS FORECAST 1998 - 2013 9
• CHART 2 INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (CPI) FROM 1992-2013 13
• CHART 3 PDI & SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 1992-2013 15
• TABLE 4 EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2002-2009 - STERLING TO THE DOLLAR, AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES 17
• CHART 5 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE RESIDENT UK POPULATION 2001 CENSUS (' 000) 18
• CHART 6 NEW ORDERS OBTAINED BY CONTRACTORS BY SECTOR - GT. BRITAIN 2002 -2008 21
• CHART 7 QUARTERLY VALUE OF NEW ORDERS OBTAINED BY CONTRACTORS - 2008/09 (£M) 22
• CHART 8 HOUSING PERFORMANCE - ENGLAND 2006-08 24
• TABLE 9 COMPONENTS OF NET HOUSING SUPPLY, 2006/07 AND 2007/08, ENGLAND 26
• CHART 10 NET ADDITIONAL DWELLINGS TARGETS AND FORECASTS, ENGLAND 2000 - 2016 29
• TABLE 11 UK HOUSING STARTS 2000-2010 BY SECTOR (' 000) 32
• TABLE 12 HOUSE BUILDING COMPLETIONS 1998-2013 - UNITED KINGDOM (' 000 DWELLINGS) 34
• TABLE 13 NAHP OUTPUT FIGURES - 2008-09 35
• CHART 14 STARTS, COMPLETIONS AND SALES OF PRIVATE NEW HOUSING ENGLAND AND WALES - 2006-2008 36
• TABLE 15 PRIVATE HOUSE BUILDING STARTS 2004-2008 ENGLISH REGIONS BY VOLUME 38
• TABLE 16 PRIVATE HOUSE BUILDING COMPLETIONS 2004-2008 ENGLISH REGIONS BY VOLUME 39
• TABLE 17 REGIONAL RESIDENTIAL HOUSING SALES, PRIVATE SECTOR 2006-2008 40
• CHART 18 PRIVATE SECTOR - STARTS, COMPLETIONS AND SALES - 2008 41
• TABLE 19 PUBLIC SECTOR* HOUSE BUILDING STARTS 2004-2008 ENGLISH REGIONS BY VOLUME 42
• TABLE 20 PUBLIC SECTOR* HOUSE BUILDING COMPLETIONS 2004-2008 ENGLISH REGIONS BY VOLUME 43
• CHART 21 HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS - % MIX BY HOUSES / FLATS GB 2001-2008 45
• TABLE 22 ESTIMATED NUMBER OF FLATS BUILT IN UK - 2003-08 (' 000S) 46
• TABLE 23 PROPOSED ECO-TOWN SITES - LOCATION AND PROJECTED VOLUMES 55
• TABLE 24 IMPACT OF 2016 HOUSING TARGET IN ENGLAND - VOLUME MIX BY REGION AND MARKET AFFORDABILITY 57
• CHART 25 AVERAGE PRICE OF NEW DWELLINGS UK 1997 - 2008 (£000) 58
• TABLE 26 AVERAGE PRICE OF NEW DWELLINGS 2004-2008 BY UK REGIONS (£) 60
• CHART 27 NUMBER OF QUARTERLY RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS - UK 2006-2009 61
• TABLE 28 AVERAGE ADVANCES BY ALL MORTGAGE LENDERS ON NEW DWELLINGS UK 1997-2008 (£' 000) 62
• TABLE 29 STOCK OF DWELLINGS (' 000) IN THE UK 1971-2007 63
• TABLE 30 AVERAGE VALUATIONS OF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING LAND WITH OUTLINE PLANNING PERMISSION IN ENGLAND 1998 - 2008 (£' 000) 65
• CHART 31 LATENT BROWNFIELD LAND - WITH PLANNING PERMISSION 2001-2007 (HECTARES) 67
• TABLE 32 MAJOR HOUSEBUILDERS - % SCHEMES BUILT ON BROWN-FIELD SITES 2004-2007 68
• CHART 33 OWNERS OF PUBLIC SECTOR LAND SUITABLE FOR RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT, UK 70
• TABLE 34 HOUSEHOLD ESTIMATES/PROJECTIONS - ENGLAND 2004 - 2029 (' 000S) 71
• CHART 35 MIX OF STOCK OF DWELLINGS BY AGE 2007 - ENGLAND 72
• TABLE 36 HOUSEHOLD TENURE DISTRIBUTION IN THE UK, 1997 TO 2007 76
• TABLE 37 NHBC REGISTERED BUILDERS BY NUMBER OF UNITS STARTED 2004-2008 77
• TABLE 38 COMPANY MARKET SHARES IN HOUSEBUILDING 2008 81
• CHART 39 TOP 3 COMPANIES SHARE OF PRIVATE HOUSEBUILDING MARKET 1997-2008 (%) 83
• TABLE 40 KEY INDICATORS FOR UK HOUSEBUILDING - BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS PLC (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS) - 2007/08 85
• TABLE 41 KEY INDICATORS FOR UK HOUSEBUILDING - TAYLOR WIMPEY PLC (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS - 2007/08) 87
• TABLE 42 KEY INDICATORS FOR UK HOUSEBUILDING - PERSIMMON PLC - 2007/08 88
• TABLE 43 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - BELLWAY PLC (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2007/08) 89
• TABLE 44 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - REDROW GROUP (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2007-08) 90
• TABLE 45 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - GLADEDALE GROUP 91
• TABLE 46 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - MILLER HOMES (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2007/08) 92
• TABLE 47 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - BOVIS HOMES GROUP PLC (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2007/08) 93
• TABLE 48 KEY INDICTORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - BERKELEY GROUP PLC (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2007/08) 94
• TABLE 49 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - CREST NICHOLSON PLC - 2007 (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2007/08) 95
• TABLE 50 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - CALA GROUP PLC (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2000-2007) 96
• TABLE 51 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING INDUSTRY COMPARISONS 2 YEAR ANALYSIS 2007/08 (TURNOVER, PROFITS AND UNIT COMPLETIONS) 98
• CHART 52 CODE FOR SUSTAINABLE HOMES - CATEGORIES NECESSARY TO ACHIEVE CODE POINTS 109
• CHART 53 UK HOUSEBUILDING MARKET - MIX BY SECTOR AND BUILD METHOD - 2008 BY VOLUME 115