SupplierBusiness : Active Safety Systems Report - The Market

Table of Contents

FOREWORD 4

• Other factors which complicate matters 4
• CO2 improvement aims can cause potential conflicts 4
• Some vehicle safety failures result from ageing equipment 4

INTRODUCTION 10

• Scope 10
• Scope of active safety systems researched 11
• Forecast Horizon 11
• Active safety systems - definition 11
• Links between Active and Passive safety systems 11
• Market 12
• Audience 12

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 13

• Active safety systems are emerging as effective tools in product differentiation 13
• But currently there is a limited commercial argument for active safety systems 13
• Low levels of consumer awareness hold back market penetration 14
• Government intervention is yet to be effective 14
• There is a lack of accident causation data 15
• The insurance industry is now more keen to give incentives 15
• Conditions for technology development are far from optimised 15
• There are significant concerns over reliability 15
• Europe and North America are distinctly different markets 16
• There are conflicting interests between supplier intellectual property protection and
• rapid market penetration 16
• Interventions to increase the rate of active safety systems development and deployment 16
• Actions by Car Manufacturers 17
• Marketing to consumers 17
• Realignment of R&D resources 17
• Collaboration on standard setting and testing 17
• Common electronic architectures 17
• Lower development risk for key suppliers 18
• Actions by suppliers 18
• Marketing, advertising, promotion 18
• Feature decoupling 18
• Increasing collaboration 18
• Actions for governments to increase the rate of active safety systems deployment 18
• Pressure on the insurance industry 19
• International cooperation on standards 19
• Reducing the risks of litigation and product liability 19
• Better statistical accident causation and system effectiveness data 19

ACTIVE SAFETY SYSTEMS ROUTEMAP 20

SPECIAL CRITIQUES 21

• 1 A critique of the rate of adoption of active safety devices 21
• Stakeholders' Aim: increase the rate of adoption of ADAS to reduce fatality rates 21
• Stakeholders' End Result 2009 21
• 2 A critique of the concept of the Intelligent Car versus the Vienna Convention 22
• 3 A critique of the safety systems selected: 22
• Appropriateness of systems 22
• But the reality has to be accepted 22
• Suggested solution 22
• 4 A critique of the method of information dissemination 23
• The public continues to lack awareness Providing information on ASS is primarily left to: 23
• Where does this leave the component makers? 23
• Suggested solution 23
• 5 A critique of the politics of cost 23
• Suggested solution 24

THE ROLE OF ACTIVE SAFETY SYSTEMS 25

• The relative positions of each of the various active safety systems in the hierarchy of an
• accident, are summarised in the following table: Forecasts for Active Safety Systems 25
• Forecasts for Active Safety Systems 26
• Active Safety System Market Penetration - European Union 26
• Active Safety System Market Penetration - United States 28

FORECASTS FOR KEY ACTIVE SAFETY SYSTEMS 30

COST VERSUS BENEFIT OF ACTIVE SAFETY SYSTEMS 36

DISCUSSION OF KEY ISSUES: THE STAKEHOLDERS 38

• Introduction 38
• Infrastructure 39
• Vehicle 39
• Driver 40
• Safety Systems and Components 40
• The role of the EC 41
• eSafety Support 42
• eSafety Forum 42
• TRACE Research Project 43
• TRACE covered 5 stages of research: 43
• Variances by market 44
• Scope of TRACE 44
• Variances by driver behaviour 45
• TRACE conclusions 46
• eIMPACT 46
• Summary of Combined Results 47
• EC Regulations, mandation procedures, legislation status and plans 48

THE ROLE OF NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANISATIONS (NGOS) & ACADEMIC INSTITUTES 52

• Introduction 52
• Universities, Technical Colleges 52
• RWTH Aachen 52
• Technische Universitat Carolo-Wilhelmina zu Braunschweig 53
• TUM Technical University Munich Germany 54
• FHS Hamburg (Hamburg University of Applied Science) Germany 55
• Universitat Stuttgart, Germany 55
• TU Darmstadt, Germany 55
• Hochschule Karlsruhe Technik & Wirtschaft, Germany 55
• Lulea University, Lulea Sweden 56
• University of Leeds 56
• University of Loughborough 56
• Imperial College London 56
• Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zurich, Switzerland 56
• VTT Finland 57
• Chalmers University Sweden 57
• Road Safety Test Laboratories and Tracks 57
• Thatcham 57
• MIRA Ltd 58
• Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) 58
• Transport Research Laboratory (TRL) 59
• Technische Uberwachungs Verein (TUV) 59
• DEKRA 59
• Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS) 60
• Consumer Oriented Lobbies 60
• Road Safety Lobbies 62
• Independent Consultancies 63
• ADAS 63
• Knibb Gormezano Partners (KGP) 63
• Publications 63
• The Insurance Industry 64
• The Car Manufacturers 65
• The Component Manufacturing Industry 67

MARKET ISSUES 68

• Insurance Industry Issues 68
• Introduction 68
• Summary of findings 73
• Who is responsible if an active safety system does not perform as it is designed to do? 73
• A higher level of adoption of ASS will reduce collision damage, fatalities and injuries
• and lead to a loss of business for the insurance industry 74
• How does the insurance industry assess risk? 74
• Risks of Active Safety Systems 74
• Benefits of Active Safety Systems 75
• In-vehicle data presentation 75
• Type Approval Issues 77
• Testing In Service 78
• Changes on Vehicles and Repair Behaviour of Car Users 78
• Driver Training 80
• Consumer Acceptance and Marketing 81
• Driver psychology 81
• The Fleet Market Perspective 88

EVOLUTION OF ACTIVE SAFETY TECHNOLOGIES 90

• Human-Machine Interface (HMI) 90
• Vehicle to Vehicle Technologies (V2V) 90
• Infrastructure To Vehicle Technologies (I2V) 90
• Pure Infrastructure Projects 91

ACTIVE SAFETY SYSTEMS EFFECTIVENESS 92

• Accident Reduction Effectiveness Ranking 92
• The Cost-Benefit Relationship According To The Motorist 93
• The motorist' s perspective: aspirations 93
• The motorist' s perspective: real world concerns 94

REGIONAL DIFFERENCES 95

• Introduction 95
• Western Europe 95
• Consumer perception and preferences 95
• North America 99
• Japan 101
• Brazil 101
• Russia 102
• India 103
• China 104

MARKET DEVELOPMENT ISSUES 106

• Driving Forces for Change: Influencing the Market 106
• The Argument in Favour of Mandatory Regulation 106
• Macroeconomic Trends 107
• Microeconomic Trends 108
• Microeconomic Trends as they affect the Vehicle Manufacturing Sector 109
• Short term 109
• Medium term 109
• Long term 109
• Technology Progress 110
• Accident Rates: An International Comparison 110
• System Cost and Influence on Market Penetration 112
• The Influence of Vehicle Segmentation and Market Demand Patterns On Adoption
• Rates For Active Safety Technologies 115
• Competition Between Active Safety Systems and the Influence On Adoption Rates 115
• Vehicle Manufacturers' Perspective 116
• The System Suppliers' Perspective 118
• The Retail Trade and Specialist or Garage Fitment Service Position 121
• Which Segment Of The Supply Chain Could Benefit From Active Safety Systems? 122
• Promotion, Advertising, Marketing Issues 125
• Supply Push 125
• Demand Pull 126
• The Tipping Point 127

APPENDIX 130

GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS 136

List of Figures

• Figure 1: The Role of Active Safety Systems 28
• Figure 2: Active Safety Systems Routemap - Electronic Stability Control 33
• Figure 3: Active Safety Systems Routemap - TPMS Estimated Penetration 34
• Figure 4: Active Safety Systems Routemap - Curve Adaptive Lighting 35
• Figure 5: Active Safety Systems Routemap - Electronic Brake Assist (Emergency Braking Assist) Estimated Penetration 36
• Figure 6: Active Safety Systems Routemap - Blind Spot Monitoring System 37
• Figure 7: Active Safety Systems Routemap - Collision Warning and Avoidance Systems 37
• Figure 8: Active Safety Systems Routemap - Lane Departure Warning Systems 38
• Figure 9: Cost v Benefit of Active Safety Systems 40

List of Tables

• Table 1: ASS Timeline 24
• Table 2: Table - Market penetration scenario: forecast installation rate in the European Union (% of new registrations). 30
• Table 3: Market penetration scenario: forecast installation rate in North America (% of new registrations) 32
• Table 4: Degree of stakeholder involvement in the three main safety environments compared to systems and components 43
• Table 5: TRACE research programme stages 48
• Table 6: Reasons for crash by major EC market 48
• Table 7: Safety systems evaluated by TRACE 48
• Table 8: Most Frequent Driver Failures 49
• Table 9: Safety systems evaluated by eIMPACT 50
• Table 10: Table - Current Status of EC eSafety position 53
• Table 11: Development of Breakdowns Involving on Board Electronics in Vehicles. 75
• Table 12: The Insurance Industry view of accident prevention benefit, through the use of Active Safety Systems. 80
• Table 13: Ranking of priorities in vehicle attributes 92
• Table 14: Expected safety benefits of the priority systems, based on research results and expert assessments. 96
• Table 15: Global Accident Data. Comparison of Fatality Rates 115
• Table 16: Table - Estimated Average Cost of Safety Systems 117
• Table 17: Suitability for fitment by outlet. 127
• Table 18: EC funded projects under the Framework FP6 Programme 134