3G Network Evolution from 2007 to 2012: HSPA+, LTE, WiMAX and femtocells

0. Summary

1. A number of factors call into question the need for 3G enhancements

2. 3G networks are still relatively new but a series of enhancements is already defined

• 2.1 3G networks currently serve only a small proportion of mobile users
• 2.2 There has been strong momentum in 3GPP to improve the performance of UMTS
• 2.3 3G enhancements can significantly improve performance, but maximum theoretical figures can be misleading
• 2.4 HSDPA has already been widely deployed but HSUPA is still emerging
• 2.5 Commercial services based on HSDPA and HSUPA are still at an early stage of development
• 2.6 HSPA+ and LTE could both be deployed by 2010 if there is commercial justification

3. Several factors could reduce the need for further 3G enhancements

• 3.1 Displacement of fixed broadband services by cellular broadband services will be limited
• 3.2 Indoor base stations are a cost-effective means of providing high quality indoor cellular services
• 3.3 Many MNOs will utilise broadcasting networks to deliver mobile TV and radio services

4. Modelling reveals that further 3G enhancements may not be required

5. HSPA+ will have a bigger role than LTE or WiMAX in the next five years

• 5.1 Despite the hype surrounding LTE and WiMAX, HSPA+ will be deployed more widely in the next five years
• 5.2 LTE has important advantages over Mobile WiMAX and will be deployed in particular circumstances
• 5.3 Network sharing will enhance the viability of deploying LTE for some MNOs

Actions

• Figure 1.1 Breakdown of mobile service data consumption between indoor and outdoor usage, for an example service mix, 2007 to 2012
• Figure 2.1 Realistic downlink data rates likely to be experienced by 3G users with different UMTS radio interfaces in a range of radio conditions
• Figure 2.2 Realistic uplink data rates likely to be experienced by 3G users with different UMTS radio interfaces in a range of radio conditions
• Figure 2.3 Typical latency for W-CDMA and UMTS enhancements
• Figure 2.4 Real examples of user data throughput and latency for HSDPA inside typical houses
• Figure 2.5 Estimated network capacities for W-CDMA, HSPA, HSPA+ and LTE for a typical 10 000 base station network deployment
• Figure 2.6 Number of W-CDMA, HSDPA and HSUPA networks worldwide
• Figure 2.7 Number of countries with W-CDMA, HSDPA and HSUPA networks
• Figure 3.1 Forecast of household penetration of fixed broadband services for selected countries, 2007 to 2012
• Figure 3.2 Estimated usage of mobile TV services based on DVB-H trials
• Figure 3.3 Estimated data consumption of mobile TV services based on DVB-H trials
• Figure 4.1 Structure of modelling of 3G service demand and technology capability
• Figure 4.2 Breakdown of mobile service data consumption between different service types, for an example service mix, 2007 to 2012
• Figure 4.3 Breakdown of mobile service data consumption between indoor and outdoor usage, for an example service mix, 2007 to 2012
• Figure 2.1 Characteristics of W-CDMA and major enhancements to the UMTS radio interface, defined by 3GPP
• Figure 2.2 Examples of mobile broadband services offered by UK MNOs
• Figure 4.1 Key attributes of modelled service mix in 2012
• Figure 5.1 Comparison of the performance of MIMO and non-MIMO WLAN equipment