Report: CHINA DIGITAL TV 2005

Analysys Findings

Industrial environments
Chinas digital television market has started, but it is still in the development stage.
Since national standards and policies were not issued for quite some time, the digital television receiver industry has not entered the stage of mass production. Because of this, no one wants to invest in it, resulting in tremendous difficulties that are now being faced by the industry. If those standards are issued before the end of 2005, Chinas digital television industry will enter a rapid development era from 2006 to 2008. These standards would cover implementation specifics like Host-Card Separation and digital transmission technologies.
The content resources of digital television are in short supply and the service platform has not been completely established.

Commercial mode

From examining commercial operation models of cities where digital television is currently operating, the following features have been identified. Large cities are intermediately developed and citizens have a relatively stronger purchasing power. Government plays an important role in the process of promoting digital television and boosting its development. The problems of high investment and sluggish returns are addressed by the joint assumption of investment risk for all parties. In the early stages of market development, promotion should be stressed but efforts should be take to minimize its popularity.
At the same time, some common problems with the development of digital television have been discovered. The availability of suitable content is the most important bottleneck to the development of digital television. Current models of STB sales go against the development of digital television market. The costs of partnerships are unclear and there are potential disagreements with the division of the returned benefits. Interactive TV programs are in short supply. Finally, the digital television industry does not show its advantages. These problems should be solved as the industry grows and development proceeds.

User scale and market scale

In 2004, there were 1,020,000 subscribers of digital television, and in 2005 it is estimated that there will be 5,350,000 home subscribers. The beginning of an explosive growth trend gradually appears. After this rapid growth from 2006 to 2007, it is estimated that there will be 50,000,000 residential subscribers of digital television by the end of 2008. The compound growth rate of digital television subscribers is estimated at 164.6% from 2004 to 2008.
The number of digital television sets sold from 2004 to 2008 is expected to exceed 25 million. This has a compounded growth rate of 79.7%. The volume of digital STBs sold during the same time is expected to exceed 21 million, reaching a compound growth rate of 126.4%.