Abstract
THIS REPORT:
- Provides a comprehensive overview of the U.S. market for lithium batteries
and their materials
- Offers information on primary and secondary lithium battery technology and
markets, including portable products, medical products, secondary
applications, military/aerospace, automotive and motive power
- Contains U.S. market forecasts for lithium batteries and materials, with
trends and forecasts for growth through 2014
- Describes the principal electrode materials and active elements for
lithium batteries, including aluminum metal, cobalt compounds, conductive
polymers, rare earth compounds and vanadium compounds
- Highlights industry structure and competitive aspects
- Profiles leading and emerging companies.
INTRODUCTION
STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
Originally, the term "battery" referred to a number of individual
electrochemical cells; therefore, a single cell, like the familiar cylindrical
flashlight power source, was not considered a battery at all. Now, a battery
refers to any electrochemical storage mechanism.
A battery has five components: two active elements (a cathode and an anode), a
separator, and an electrolyte medium for carrying ions between the reactants
through the separator and a container. One reactant or electrode has a net
negative charge and is called the anode. In lithium batteries, the anode
material is lithium, or in a few cases, a lithium - aluminum alloy. In some
cases, the anode is metallic lithium; in other instances, including lithium -
ion cells, the anode consists of an ionic lithium compound. The other reactant
electrode, with a positive charge, is called the cathode. The cathode usually
is a metallic compound. The electrolyte is usually similar to the cathode to
promote ion transfer. Finally, the battery is contained in a case that
provides dimensional stability and a positive and negative electrode or
battery cap for discharging (or recharging) the cell. A number of separate
electrochemical cells are combined within the same case to create a battery.
Until about 20 years ago, the battery market was seen as mature, with demand
closely related to sales of either automobiles or various consumer products.
Since then, improved lithium batteries have helped spark a dramatic change in
this relationship. Just as lithium batteries replaced nickel - based and
primary batteries for many applications, traditional lithium - ion battery
designs are beginning to be replaced by advanced lithium - ion chemistries
like lithium phosphate, lithium - iron phosphate, lithium - sulfur, and
lithium - polymer systems.
Lithium batteries were first developed in the 1960s and were first
commercialized in the early 1970s, but did not receive wide consumer use until
1981. There are now six commercial and developmental lithium battery types,
nearly 30 commercialized electrode couples, and more than 1,000 specific
designs. The latest generation of lithium batteries includes very large cells
suitable for powering vehicles or storing significant amounts of utility power
as well as very small thin - film cells capable of powering micro -
electromechanical systems (MEMS).
In fact, improved lithium batteries have allowed the commercialization of
entire new classes of portable products, including laptop computers, cellular
phones, and portable music players. Lithium batteries have been used in
prototype and precommercial, plug - in electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid
electric vehicles (HEVs), and eventually may be commercialized to provide
automobile starting power, or to supplement internal combustion for fuel -
cell power in next generation fuel - cell vehicles (FEVs).
During the 1990s, lithium batteries posted double - digit growth. Between 2000
and 2005, there was a period of steady sales or incremental growth (as opposed
to the double - digit growth of the 1990s). Lithium battery sales then picked
up through 2008. As prices fell, this was especially true for unit sales.
Since mid - 2008, sales and market value have plummeted due to the global
recession.
Lithium batteries are linked to serious failure modes, including now -
notorious incidents during which they set portable computers on fire. In at
least one reported case, a meltdown occurred in an airliner; although a
catastrophe was averted, it was a close call. New designs and better quality
control reduce this risk but give pause to some designers and open the door to
competing energy - storage systems.
With this background in mind, this study summarizes the global primary and
secondary lithium battery markets. This provides the basis for a detailed
analysis of global lithium battery material technology and markets.
REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY
The second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009 were the most significant
months in the history of lithium batteries.
- First, several of lithium batteries' largest and highest growth markets
entered a period of retraction. Even as "must - have" portable products, like
iPhones, grew in popularity, battery - powered laptop and cell phone sales
fell.
- This was due to global recessionary forces, including unemployment,
difficulty obtaining consumer credit, and lower commercial demand. At the same
time, gasoline prices peaked and fell from a high of more than $4 per gallon
to less than $2 per gallon. Combined with the recession, this resulted in
deeply lower demand for fuel - efficient vehicles, especially hybrid electric
vehicles (HEVs). There were major concerns about the future of developmental
plug - in EVs. Two leading would - be plug - in sources (GM and Chrysler)
filed for bankruptcy.
- On the other hand, government intervention more than offset some of these
issues, especially for the early - stage U.S. lithium battery industry. First,
the newly elected administration of President Barack Obama announced plans to
fund billions of dollars in U.S. lithium battery development. Next, the
administration canceled billions of dollars' worth of funding for Bush - era
fuel - cell - and hydrogen - power - vehicle development funding. This has
not yet affected non - U.S. fuel - cell - vehicle development and, indeed,
several U.S. manufacturers of fuel cell vehicles have vowed to continue.
However, it certainly helped reduce the impact of one of the lithium - battery
- powered vehicle' s greatest competitors. The Obama administration also
implemented new CAFE fuel - efficiency standards that will provide a
significant incentive for wider HEV and EV use. Finally, the U.S is working
toward an industrial policy to help reduce the effects of global warming.
- Meanwhile, the Bolivian government is negotiating with several companies
from several nations with the aim of developing the vast Bolivian lithium salt
deposits. If this results in working mines, any anticipated global demand
would be satisfied. Meanwhile, other lithium resources are preparing to come
on line. The possibility that widely commercialized lithium EV batteries would
create a lithium battery shortage now seems unlikely.
- Since most lithium batteries are currently manufactured in Japan or China,
many leading lithium battery companies are concentrated in the Far East.
Lithium battery material companies include South American, U.S., and Canadian
companies. Most lithium salts currently come from Chile, but Bolivia has vast
reserves that could soon be developed. Lithium battery research and
development takes place worldwide, but especially in the Far East, the United
States, Europe (especially France), and Canada. In 2008 and 2009, there has
been an aggressive move toward the wide commercialization of large - vehicle -
size, lithium - ion cells. Even without government incentives, U.S. companies
were preparing to manufacture and/or assemble large numbers of lithium
batteries. Now, U.S. companies are proposing lithium battery projects worth
billions of dollars. At the same time, there are more and more multinational
lithium battery partnerships, including partnerships between U.S. and European
or Far Eastern companies.r Doing the Study (Continued)
- None of these developments were considered likely in early 2008. Previous
forecasts and analyses did not consider them or treated them as relatively
unlikely pessimistic or optimistic scenarios.
This BCC Research study is based on the new consensus.
SCOPE OF THE REPORT
This report begins with a discussion of primary and secondary lithium battery
technologies and markets.
The following lithium battery markets are analyzed:
- Portable products
- Computing
- Communications
- Tools
- Others
- Medical products
- Implantable
- Not implantable
- Stationary applications
- Computer memory preservation
- Uninterruptible power supplies
- Military/Aerospace
- Primary
- Secondary
- Developmental
- Automotive and motive power
- Industrial electric vehicles (traction)
- Plug - ins and hybrid vehicle motive power (EVs and HEVs)
- Automotive starting, lighting, and ignition
- Automotive security
The report then concentrates on lithium battery materials:
- Electrode materials and active elements
- Aluminum metal
- Cobalt compounds
- Conductive polymers
- Copper compounds
- Electrolytic manganese dioxide
- Halogens
- Fullerenes
- Inorganic carbon
- Lithium metal and compounds
- Nickel metal and compounds
- Rare earth compounds
- Sulfur compounds
- Vanadium compounds
- Lithium battery electrolytes
- Battery separators
These market sectors are defined, leading global companies are identified, and
the markets analyzed (including a 5 - year market projection).
Lithium battery companies are identified and profiled. Each profile includes
points of contact and a discussion of structure, description, and activity.
METHODOLOGY
This report is based on both primary and secondary research methodologies,
including literature reviews, patent examinations, and discussions with
commercial and government sources. Throughout the report, past market data is
expressed in current dollars, and estimates and projections are in constant
2009 dollars. Historic markets and the projected market for 2014 are provided.
Most market summaries are based on a consensus scenario that assumes no
unanticipated technical advances and no unexpected legislation. Pessimistic,
consensus, and optimistic market scenarios characterize several developmental
markets. Totals are rounded to the nearest million dollars.
This publication provides informative material of a professional nature. It
does not constitute managerial, legal, or accounting advice, nor should it
serve as a corporate policy guide or an endorsement of any given product or
company. The information is intended to be as accurate as possible at the time
it was written and was undertaken on a best - effort basis. The views
expressed are those of the author' s and they do not make any warranty,
expressed or implied, for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of the
information, or for the interpretation of data or its use by others.
Projections involve risks and uncertainties and are not limited to, but
include, technical risks associated with technology development, government
regulatory approvals, and access to capital. The author assumes no
responsibility for any losses or damages that might result due to reliance on
this material.
INTENDED AUDIENCE
This report provides a unique analysis of the global lithium battery and
associated materials market, and will be of interest to manufacturers and
users of these batteries. This report will be especially useful to material
miners, compounders, and fabricators. It also will be valuable to those
involved in battery development and marketing, as well as those offering
competing power sources. BCC Research wishes to thank those companies,
government agencies, and university researchers that contributed information
for this report.
INFORMATION SOURCES
This report' s author prepared these studies as well. Although many segments of
the industry are well documented, much of this information is based on
informed estimates or predictions, not hard facts. The distinction between
these estimates and hard facts can be vital, and wherever possible, sources
are identified.
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