INTRODUCTION
STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES BCC's goal in conducting this study was to determine the technical and market status of geothermal and
biogas-fueled bulk power production equipment. The investigation included developing a rationale for projecting the evolution of the markets for the
equipment for the period 2003 through 2008. The study focuses on technologies designed to produce bulk electricity, except in the case of agribusiness
animal husbandry, where an aggregate number was often sought. Geothermal investigations included locations using both hot liquid reservoirs and the
emerging market for hot-dry rock. Biogas opportunities included an assessment of the market potential for generation equipment running on gas from
landfills, wastewater treatment plants and concentrated animal feeding operations. Forecasts were developed to encompass the total installed capacity
on global, national and regional bases, plus individual forecasts for power production technologies such as reciprocating engines, small turbines,
microturbines, and fuel cells. A goal of the research for this report was to investigate, characterize and quantify the impacts of resource
location, political forces, government incentives, international mandates, and environmental factors that impede or enhance the markets for the
renewable energy technologies considered. The technical status of each of the technologies was also examined to determine whether trends were emerging
in the preferences for one technology over another, or whether technological advances were priming one technology to supersede another. REASONS
FOR DOING THIS STUDY For a number of reasons the renewable energy technologies industry has finally struggled its way into the realm of Big
Business. Large wind turbines climbed into the billion dollar a year realm in the mid-1990s, and photovoltaics reached that level in 2000. Small hydro
plants¾those with capacities under 10 MW¾have been a billion dollar a year business for more than a decade. Geothermal power plants have
become a short-listed option wherever a sufficient resource is present. Power production plants running on landfill gas, wastewater treatment plant
biogas, and animal waste gas are now becoming normal components in the municipal and industrial waste sectors. These burgeoning industries are
continuing their upward swing, and are being joined by several established and new technologies running on waste gases and gasified biomass. This
study was performed to pinpoint where opportunities for growth are most concentrated for each technology, to quantify their current and future
installed capacity and to place a dollar value on those shipments. The study also examines the forces driving the rapid growth of renewables markets,
including regulatory and financial incentive schemes that governments, private organizations and international organizations have put into place to
foster renewables industries. One overriding concern is global warming, a nascent catastrophic environmental situation whose existence has finally
been admitted by all but the most committed to denial. A second factor is the growing epidemiological evidence that millions of instances of
respiratory illnesses and fatalities are caused by emissions from fossil-fueled power plants. The last, tangentially, are the events of September 11,
2001, which revealed once again the dangers of dependence and involvement of oil-addicted western nations with unstable fundamentalist cultures that
have access to the world information utility and large amounts of capital. The expanding market for renewables has now become large enough so that
it has begun to impinge on the market share of conventional power generation technologies such as coal- and gas-fired power plants, diesel generators,
and large hydropower. Nuclear is dying because of its costs, insoluble waste problem and the terrorism threat. Solutions that are emerging (microturbines,
fuel cells, anaerobic digesters) and maturing (geothermal) are exhibiting signs of becoming large industrial activities. This study was performed to
identify and quantify the driving factors, the key players, the technologies, the economics and the market potential of these new industries. This
report was prepared in a manner that compares and contrasts what can be expected as the world begins its shift from power generation based on
consumption of limited and polluting resources to power extraction effectively endless and clean sources of energy. This shift is altering the flow of
money from established power production industries to what were once called "alternative sources of energy." Answers were sought as to the
pace of this shift, its magnitude, where it is happening, and the implications for the fiscal evolution of the energy conversion technologies
examined. CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE STUDY AND FOR WHOM This study covers the markets for renewable energy technologies that include geothermal
power plants and reciprocating engines, fuel cells, turbines, and microturbine technologies that utilize biomass, waste gases from organic sources,
and geothermal heat. The analysis contained in this report was garnered from primary sources (manufacturers and end users), government regulators
and researchers, financial reports, printed and electronic news releases, magazine articles, newsletters, news pages, and trade publications.
Extensive use was made of existing BCC Research data files and publications and the World Wide Web. This report and its analysis are of interest to
manufacturers of equipment and balance of plant components, project developers, factory farm operators, equipment integrators, anaerobic digester
manufacturers, contractors, government regulators, funding and energy agencies, international development banks and agencies, utilities, investment
bankers and underwriters, venture capitalists, corporations and municipal governments with waste disposal problems, carbon traders, green power
vendors, and national and state clean energy fund administrators. SCOPE AND FORMAT The scope of this study encompasses markets for several
established bulk power renewable energy technologies. The technologies covered are geothermal power plants, biogas-fueled reciprocating engines, fuel
cells, turbines and microturbines, and biomass gasifiers. BCC analyzes each technology, determines its current market status and readiness for
market, examines its impact on future markets, and presents forecasts of market growth to 2008. Attention is devoted to factors such as Green Power
programs; green tags/certificates; Social Benefit Funds; Clean Energy Funds; Renewable Portfolio Standards; the U.K. Renewables Obligation; the Kyoto
Protocol and the Clean Development Mechanism; the Prototype Carbon Fund; environmental concerns and mandates; zoning issues; and cost comparisons. BCC
analyzes the industry on a worldwide basis, from the perspectives of manufacturing, product and market evolution, government incentive programs, and
mandatory purchases. We examine government support programs and legislation and advocacy activities of renewable energy industry organizations in
major regions of the world. The impacts of international agreements are explored and quantified where funds are being made available to promote
projects in developed, transitioning and developing nations. The report evaluates the market opportunities for renewables in terms of the regulatory
practices of nations, provinces, and states; international agreements, the financial incentives and barriers to uptake of the various technologies,
and the capability of a given region to utilize the various technologies. The suitability of the various technologies for various regions is
examined and the various motivations for selection of particular technologies are discussed. This report is laid out to provide an overview of the
world renewable energy bulk power market, provide a viable perspective of size of the market relative to conventional bulk power technologies, and to
characterize the fiscal, environmental and political forces shaping the world market for renewables technologies. Separate sections are then provided
which delineate the world, regional and national markets for geothermal power production capacity and biogas energy conversion systems. Specific
attention is given to incentive programs, regulatory frameworks, resource characterizations, and market opportunities. Biogas energy conversion
devices that are discussed are reciprocating engines, turbines, microturbines, fuel cells, and anaerobic digesters. Each technology is considered
for its functional aspects, fit to the application, costs, maintenance, market position and prospects, and the manufacturers. Geothermal power plant
markets are analyzed with regard to the market potential for capacity uptake. All markets are examined in terms of the growth or decline of
installed capacity and expected revenues within the forecast interval covered in this report (to 2008). Forecasts are provided covering the markets on
world, regional and national bases, as well as for individual states and provinces within nations. METHODOLOGY BCC analyzes, by each
renewable energy power production technology, the capacity shipped in 2002 and expected to be shipped by the year 2008 and in the intervening years.
Our estimated value is the market value in 2002 dollars and, where appropriate, in terms of units shipped and capacity installed. The forecasts that
were generated cover world, regional, national and, where appropriate, provincial and state markets. | 
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