Report: Emerging RF Technologies

INTRODUCTION

RADIO FREQUENCY TECHNOLOGIES AND APPLICATIONS

This study describes and analyzes the market for new and emerging radio frequency (RF) technologies and applications. RF technologies use electromagnetic radiation or energy in the 15 kHz to 300 gHz range to accomplish a wide range of objectives, including broadcasting, two-way communication, manufacturing applications, and security and access control, to name only a few.

STUDY BACKGROUND

Many RF technologies, such as radiotelephone or analog TV broadcasting, are mature technologies with slowly growing markets. At the other extreme are recently introduced RF technologies, such as high definition TV and wireless networking, that are still in their infancy but appear poised for rapid growth.

Existing studies of emerging RF technologies tend to focus on a single market segment, such as cellular communications or radio frequency identification (RFID) technology. What has been generally lacking until now is a comprehensive survey of the new RF technologies that compares their market potential and analyzes their importance to the future of the RF industry as a whole.

The economic importance of emerging RF technologies extends far beyond sales of equipment and related professional services. RF supports and makes possible entire sectors of the economy, such as the wireless telecommunications industry. The services these sectors provide to end-users are crucial to the efficient functioning of a modern economy.

RF technology is important not only from an economic standpoint but from regulatory, health, environmental and national security perspectives as well. The increasing demand for RF bandwidth forces telecommunications regulators to consider ways of meeting the demand by opening new frequencies to the private sector and using regulatory or market mechanisms to allocate the available bandwidth among competing classes of users.

Existing studies are inconclusive regarding the potential human health impacts of RF emissions. However, the risks are considered significant enough for the World Health Organization (WHO) to conduct a broad-based study of the health impacts of RF emissions in partnership with the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Until the WHO study is completed in 2005, WHO recognizes a nongovernmental organization, the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) as the authority on RF emissions. ICNIRP has established international guidelines on human exposure limits for RF fields.

In addition to concerns about the human health impacts of extensive exposure to RF emissions, there are the environmental issues. The latter range from the esthetic impacts of nearly ubiquitous cell phone towers to the potential adverse effects of low-level RF on wildlife and birds.

Finally, RF technologies are an increasingly important component of national security. Modern military doctrine blends information technology and wireless communications to create capabilities never seen before on the battlefield. The RF spectrum has been compared with fuel, water, and ammunition, without which tactical operations are not possible.

STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

Despite their potential importance, no comprehensive analysis of emerging RF technologies and applications is available. This report is intended to satisfy the need for an objective, quantitative analysis that addresses emerging RF technologies in the context of the overall RF market. More specific objectives are to

identify the principal new RF technologies and applications, including those that are expected to be commercialized in the 2003 through 2008 time frame;
quantify and analyze sales of each new technology since 2000;
identify and evaluate the impact of economic, business, demographic, technological, legal/regulatory and other factors that will drive the future market for each of these new technologies;
forecast future (through 2008) sales of each technology, including new products and/or applications;
analyze the importance of the new technologies to the RF industry as a whole; and
analyze the economic, business, regulatory, environmental, health and other macro issues raised by projected trends in the size and structure of the RF market.

INTENDED AUDIENCE

The report has been written for the entire RF interest community, including

manufacturers, distributors and vendors of RF equipment;
RF-oriented consultants and systems integrators;
regulatory, health, environmental and other government agencies concerned with RF;
researchers; and
the financial and analyst communities.

SCOPE AND FORMAT

This report is an analytical business tool with the primary purpose of describing and analyzing the size and dynamics of the market for RF products and applications, with a primary focus on the U.S. market. Major sections of the report cover the following topics:

Summary of findings and conclusions
Overview of the RF industry
New RF technologies and applications
Market size and segmentation, 2000 through 2002
Market drivers and constraints
Detailed market projections by market segment, through 2008
Industry performance and structure (sales, market shares, recent M&A transactions)
Long-term outlook for the U.S. RF industry

METHODOLOGY AND INFORMATION SOURCES

The findings and conclusions of this report are based on information gathered from all types of participants in the RF market, including manufacturers, distributors, end-users, consultants, and integrators. Interview data were combined with information gathered through an extensive review of secondary sources such as trade publications, trade associations, company literature, and online databases to produce the baseline market estimates contained in this report.

With 2002 as a baseline, market projections for each market segment were developed for through 2008. The projections are based on a combination of a consensus among the primary contacts combined with our understanding of the key market drivers and their impact from a historical and analytical perspective. The analytical methodologies used to generate the market estimates are described in detail in the section on Detailed Market Projections.

All dollar projections presented in this report are in 2002 constant dollars.