Abstract
REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
- The global market for nanotechnology will increase from $11.6 billion in
2007 to an estimated $12.7 billion by the end of 2008. It should reach $27
billion in 2013, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.3%.
- Nanomaterials dominated the market in 2007, accounting for 87% of the
total market. This is expected to decrease to 69.2% by 2013.
- Electronics, biomedical and consumer applications have high projected
growth rates of 30.3%, 56.2% and 45.9% over the next 5 years.
INTRODUCTION
The previous (2006) edition of this report began by noting the hype, both
positive and negative, that surrounds nanotechnology. The hype has arguably
grown less extreme in the last 2 years: Today, rosy projections of a "trillion
dollar" nanotechnology market in 10 years or apocalyptic predictions about a
"Faustian bargain" or a "Pandora' s box" are heard less often.
However, while the hype may have slowed somewhat, it is still there and the
evidence suggests it is still growing. Growing public awareness combined with
the complex, diverse nature of the technologies that are commonly grouped
together under the heading of nanotechnology virtually invites
misunderstanding, if not actual misrepresentation. For example, in 2004 the
New York State Attorney General' s office was asked to investigate charges that
the "nano" label was being used to promote questionable stocks to credulous
investors. In response to the charges, Merrill Lynch revised its
nanotechnology stock index, dropping six companies it said do not meet its
definition of companies that are heavily involved in nanotechnology.
Stockbrokers are not the only ones to misunderstand or misuse the nano prefix.
Business, academia, the media all have an incentive to attempt to cash in on
nanotechnology. Various manufacturers have tacked "nano" onto their products
and processes, whether or not they deal in nano-size elements, in an attempt
to boost sales. Companies that have nothing to do with nanotechnology have
"nano" in their names to make them sound more technologically advanced than
the competition. Some academic researchers worry that the nano buzzword is
being misused to bring in research dollars for dubious technologies and
applications, at the expense of legitimate research.
Hype inevitably carries with it the risk of a backlash, because it can create
unrealistic expectations for nanotechnology. Then, when expectations are not
met, people tend to withdraw or worse turn oppositional. As a result,
legitimate nanotechnology products and applications are hurt along with the
rest, as funding and markets dry up.
The dot.com boom and bust provides a cautionary example of the dangers of
hype, but nanotechnology has a more tangible nature because it is a set of
technologies. Nevertheless, nanotechnology for the most part remains a set of
solutions in search of a problem. This report takes a hard look at the
nanotechnology field and tries to provide a road map to the technologies and
applications that are most likely to be commercialized in the next 5 years.
SCOPE OF STUDY
This report contains:
- Descriptions of various types of nanotechnologies including nanomaterials
(nanoparticles, nanotubes, nanostructured materials, and nanocomposites),
nanotools (nanolithography tools and scanning probe microscopes) and
nanodevices (nanosensors and nanoelectronics)
- The current global market status for nanotechnologies, with trends and
forecasts for growth over the next 5 years
- Emerging nanoscale technologies and applications such as nanoparticulate
fabric treatments and rocket fuel additives
- Discussion of factors that will influence the long-term development of
nanotechnology.
METHODOLOGY AND INFORMATION SOURCES
Projecting the market for emerging technologies, such as most nanotechnology
applications whose commercial potential has not yet been proven, is a
challenging task, which may help to explain why many analysts focus on
supply-side technology assessments. A multiphase approach was used in the
preparation of this report to identify the nanotechnology applications with
the greatest commercial potential and quantify the market for these
applications, as described below.
In the first phase of the analysis, BCC Research identifies a long list of
potential nanotechnology applications (including applications that are still
under development) and mapped them against potential end-user industries, such
as information technology/electronics, biotechnology, and health care. In the
second phase, BCC eliminates those nanotechnology applications that appear to
have little likelihood of making it into commercial production in the next 5
years. This was accomplished through a literature review and interviews with
industry sources. The result of phase two is a short list of applications and
end-user industries with the greatest near- to mid-term commercial potential.
The third phase focuses on quantifying the potential broader market for each
short-listed nanotechnology application and identifying the main prerequisites
for commercial success. Various methodologies and data sources were used to
develop the projections, including trend-line projections, input-output
analysis, and estimates of future demand from industry sources.
| 
View Cart
