Abstract
INTRODUCTION
STUDY BACKGROUND
Over the last 100 years, physicists and engineers have progressively learned
to exploit new areas of the electromagnetic spectrum. Starting with visible
light, they have developed technologies for generating and detecting radiation
at both higher and lower frequencies.
Sandwiched between the optical on the short wavelength side and radio on the
long wavelength extreme, the terahertz (THz) frequency range (also called the
far infrared or sub-millimeter-wave region) has been the least explored and
developed portion of the electromagnetic spectrum. The potential usefulness of
THz radiation, with its ability to penetrate a wide range of non-conducting
materials, has been known for a long time. The first images generated using
THz radiation date from as far back as the 1960s.
However, practical applications of THz radiation have been longer in coming,
due to the so-called gterahertz gap.h The terahertz gap refers to the
technologies needed to generate, channel, and detect THz radiation subject to
real-world constraints such as size, cost, and operating temperatures. Recent
developments in THz ration sources, detectors, and waveguides have started to
close the terahertz gap, opening up a range of potential applications in
transportation security, medical imaging, non-destructive testing, and other
fields.
STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
The overall goals of this report include assessing the technological process
that has been made towards bridging the terahertz gap and assessing the
commercial potential of THz radiation devices over the next 5 to 10 years.
Specific objectives include:
- Identifying the THz applications that are most likely to achieve
significant commercial sales by 2018.
- Assessing any remaining barriers to their commercialization, and develop
quantitative estimates of potential sales.
- Analyzing promising THz applications in the context of user needs and
competing technologies.
- Developing quantitative market projections through 2018.
- Identifying companies that are well positioned to profit from these trends.
INTENDED AUDIENCE
This report is intended especially for marketing executives, entrepreneurs,
investors, venture capitalists and other readers with a need to know where the
emerging market for THz radiation devices is headed over the next 10 years.
Although the report is organized around specific technologies, it is largely
non-technical in nature and coverage. That is, it is concerned less with
theory and jargon than with what works, how much of the latter the market is
likely to purchase, and at what price.
The report has not been written specifically for scientists and technologists.
However, the report' s findings concerning the market for their work, including
the availability of government and corporate research funding for different
technologies and applications should interest them as well.
SCOPE OF REPORT
The report addresses the emerging global market for THz radiation devices,
including the classes of devices listed below.
- Imaging devices
- Spectroscopes
- Other sensors
- Communications devices
- Computing devices
The study format includes the following major elements:
- Executive summary
- Definitions
- General properties of THz radiation
- Historical milestones in the development of THz radiation devices
- Emerging and developmental THz radiation technologies and applications
that have the greatest commercial potential through 2018
- Detailed market estimates and projections for each technology and
application during the period 2007 to 2013
- General assessment of expected market trends in the longer term (2014 to
2018)
- Industry structure
- Patent analysis
INFORMATION SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
Projecting the market for emerging technologies, whose commercial potential
has not yet been proven, is a challenging task. This is nowhere truer than the
THz radiation field, which may help to explain why many analysts focus on
supply-side technology assessments.
However, BCC' s objective in this report is to provide not just a technology
assessment, but also an initial commercial assessment of the potential
commercial market for THz devices. To accomplish this objective, BCC used a
multiphase approach to identify the technologies with the greatest commercial
potential and quantify the related markets.
In the first phase of the analysis, BCC identified a long list of THz
technologies and applications, including those that are still under
development. In the second phase, BCC eliminated those applications that
appear to have little likelihood of making it into commercial use in the next
5 to 10 years, through a literature review and interviews with industry
sources. The result of phase two was a short list of THz technologies with the
greatest commercial potential over the time period covered by this report.
The third phase focused on quantifying the potential market for each
short-listed THz technology, by application, and identifying the main
prerequisites for commercial success. Phase three actually had two phases: 1)
development of near to mid-term (2008 to 2013) projections and 2) development
of longer-term (2014 to 2018) projections.
The development of such long-term projections is a departure from the usual
BCC report format, necessitated by the long time frame for commercialization
of many of the technologies analyzed in this report. Obviously, the
projections for the out-years beyond 2014 are more tentative than the
projections for 2008 to 2013.
The specific assumptions and approach BCC used to develop the projections
(both near/mid-term and long term) for each THz technology and application are
documented in detail under the various segments addressed. This way, readers
can see how the market estimates were developed and, if they so desire, test
the impact on the final numbers of changing the underlying assumptions.
One of the approaches used by BCC deserves special mention here. Particularly
in the case of THz applications that are still under development, BCC used the
sales performance of non-THz application that share some of the same functions
or other characteristics with the respective THz applications as a benchmark
for assessing the latter' s sales potential.
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