Strategic Analysis of the Nordic Wireless Market 2005

Table of Contents

Executive summary

1 Overview of the Nordic wireless market

1.1 Regulatory environment

1.1.1 Policy makers and regulatory authorities

1.1.2 European regulatory framework

1.1.3 Self regulation

1.1.4 Contractual periods and SIM-locks

1.2 Key market players.

1.2.1 Elisa

1.2.2 Finnet Group

1.2.3 Siminn

1.2.4 TDC Group

1.2.5 Tele2

1.2.6 Telenor Group

1.2.7 TeliaSonera

1.2.8 Vodafone Sweden

1.3 Market characteristics.

1.3.1 Market concentration

1.3.2 Mobile penetration

1.3.3 Number portability

1.3.4 Mobile traffic

1.3.5 Non-voice services

1.3.6 Price levels

1.4 Technology environment.

1.4.1 Technology overview

1.4.2 Review of 1G, 2G and 3G Networks in the Nordic area

1.4.3 Status of 3G network deployment in the Nordic area

1.5 Competitive environment.

1.5.1 Consumer market

1.5.2 Corporate market

1.6 Market trends and developments.

1.6.1 Fixed to mobile substitution

1.6.2 Handset trends

1.6.3 Business models

1.6.4 Pricing

1.6.5 Market estimates

2 Country profile: Denmark

2.1 Economic and political environment.

2.2 Regulatory environment

2.2.1 Regulator

2.2.2 Recent events

2.3 Telecom environment.

2.3.1 Technology overview

2.3.2 Review of 2G and 3G networks in Denmark

2.3.3 Status of 3G deployment in Denmark

2.4 Competitive environment.

2.4.1 Market overview

2.4.2 Mobile traffic and revenues

2.4.3 Market shares for key players

2.4.4 Price developments

2.5 Mobile network operators.

2.5.1 Hi3G Denmark

2.5.2 SONOFON

2.5.3 TDC Mobil

2.5.4 TeliaSonera

2.5.5 Faroese Telecom

2.5.6 Kall

2.5.7 TELE Greenland

2.6 Service providers and MVNOs

2.6.1 CBB Mobil

2.6.2 debitel

2.6.3 Tele2 Denmark

2.6.4 Telmore

3 Country profile: Finland

3.1 Economic and political environment.

3.2 Regulatory environment

3.2.1 Regulator

3.2.2 Recent events

3.3 Telecom environment.

3.3.1 Technology overview

3.3.2 Review of 2G and 3G networks in Finland

3.3.3 Status of 3G deployment in Finland

3.4 Competitive environment

3.4.1 Market overview

3.4.2 Mobile traffic and revenues

3.4.3 Historical developments

3.4.4 Market shares of key players

3.4.5 Price developments

3.5 Mobile network operators.

3.5.1 Elisa Corporation

3.5.2 Finnet Group

3.5.3 TeliaSonera

3.5.4 Alands Mobiltelefon AB

3.6 Service providers and MVNOs

3.6.1 Saunalahti Group

3.6.2 Tele2 Finland

4 Country profile: Iceland

4.1 Economic and political environment.

4.2 Regulatory environment

4.2.1 Regulator

4.2.2 Recent events

4.3 Telecom environment.

4.3.1 Technology overview

4.3.2 Review of 2G and 3G networks in Iceland

4.4 Competitive environment.

4.4.1 Market overview

4.4.2 Mobile traffic and revenues

4.4.3 Market shares of key players

4.5 Mobile network operators.

4.5.1 Siminn

4.5.2 Og fjarskipti

5 Country profile: Norway

5.1 Economic and political environment

5.2 Regulatory environment

5.2.1 Regulator

5.2.2 Recent events

5.3 Telecom environment.

5.3.1 Technology overview

5.3.2 Review of 2G and 3G networks in Norway

5.3.3 Status of 3G deployment in Norway

5.4 Competitive environment.

5.4.1 Market overview

5.4.2 Mobile traffic and revenues

5.4.3 Market shares of key players

5.4.4 Price developments

5.5 Mobile network operators.

5.5.1 NetCom

5.5.2 Telenor

5.5.3 Teletopia

5.6 Service providers and MVNOs

5.6.1 Chess

5.6.2 Tele2 Norway

6 Country profile: Sweden

6.1 Economic and political environment.

6.2 Regulatory environment

6.2.1 Regulator

6.2.2 Recent events

6.3 Telecom environment.

6.3.1 Technology overview

6.3.2 Review of 2G and 3G networks in Sweden

6.3.3 Status of 3G deployment in Sweden

6.4 Competitive environment

6.4.1 Market overview

6.4.2 Mobile traffic and revenues

6.4.3 Market shares of key players

6.4.4 Price developments

6.5 Mobile network operators.

6.5.1 Hi3G Access AB

6.5.2 Spring Mobil

6.5.3 Tele2 Sweden

6.5.4 TeliaSonera

6.5.5 Vodafone Sweden

6.6 Service providers and MVNOs

6.6.1 Telenor Mobile Sweden

6.6.2 Wireless Maingate

Outlook Nordic operators expanding into the Baltic countries

History and development

Rapid economic growth

European Union accession

Telecom investments in the region

Estonia

Economy

Communications

Key mobile operators

Latvia

Economy

Communications

Key mobile operators

Lithuania

Economy

Communications

7 Key market players

7.1 Elisa Corporation.

7.1.1 Operations

7.1.2 Financial situation

7.1.3 Strategy

7.2 Hi3G Access

7.2.1 Operations

7.2.2 Financial situation

7.2.3 Strategy

7.3 TDC Group

7.3.1 Operations

7.3.2 Financial situation

7.3.3 Strategy

7.4 Tele2 Group.

7.4.1 Operations

7.4.2 Financial situation

7.4.3 Strategy

7.5 Telenor Group

7.5.1 Operations

7.5.2 Financial situation

7.5.3 Strategy

7.6 TeliaSonera.

7.6.1 Operations

7.6.2 Financial situation

7.6.3 Strategy

7.7 Vodafone

7.7.1 Operations

7.7.2 Financial situation

7.7.3 Strategy

Outlook Service Providers and Mobile Virtual Network Operators

Types of mobile operators

Regulatory impact

Reaching marginal segments profitably

Strategic possibilities

8 Overview of wireless communication technologies and systems

8.1 System architecture.

8.1.1 Mobile Station (MS)

8.1.2 Base Station Subsystem (BSS)

8.1.3 Network Subsystem (NSS)

8.2 Key concepts and technologies of cellular systems.

8.2.1 Handoff and handover

8.2.2 Roaming

8.2.3 Multiple access methods

8.2.4 Full Duplex Methods

8.3 Analogue cellular systems - 1G

8.3.1 Advanced Mobile Phone Service (AMPS)

8.3.2 Total Access Communication System (TACS)

8.3.3 Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT)

8.3.4 Japanese Mobile Cellular System (MCS)

8.3.5 Mobitex

8.3.6 Other first generation standards

8.4 Digital cellular systems - 2G

8.4.1 Global System for Mobile communications (GSM)

8.4.2 North American TDMA (IS-136)

8.4.3 CdmaOne (IS-95)

8.4.4 Integrated Dispatch Enhanced Network (iDEN)

8.4.5 Personal Digital Cellular (PDC)

8.5 Upgraded digital cellular systems - 2.5G

8.5.1 High Speed Circuit Switch Data (HSCSD)

8.5.2 General Packet Radio Service (GPRS)

8.5.3 Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution (EDGE)

8.5.4 CdmaOne (IS-95B)

8.5.5 CDMA2000 1xRTT

8.6 Wideband digital cellular systems - 3G

8.6.1 IMT-2000

8.6.2 Wideband Code Division Multiple Access (WCDMA)

8.6.3 Code Division Multiple Access 2000 (CDMA2000)

8.6.4 Time Division CDMA (TD-CDMA)

8.7 Future cellular systems - 4G-

Outlook Travel and transportation catalysing 4G

Broadband on rail

Hotspots in the air

Calling at sea

Natural step towards future wireless systems

Appendix Glossary

List of Figures

• Figure 1.1 - Nordic telecom market liberalisation milestones.
• Figure 1.2 - Market concentration (Nordic wireless markets 2004)
• Figure 1.3 - Mobile penetration in the Nordic countries
• Figure 1.4 - Mobile penetration in the Nordic countries (Q2-2004)
• Figure 1.5 - Ported mobile numbers in the Nordic countries H1-2004.
• Figure 1.6 - Monthly minutes of usage per mobile subscribers (Nordic area 2001-2004)
• Figure 1.7 - Number of SMS sent per month (Nordic area 2001-2004).
• Figure 1.8 - Number of MMS sent and growth rate (Nordic countries 2003-2004).
• Figure 1.9 - Camera phone penetration (Finland, Norway, Sweden 2003-2004)
• Figure 1.10 - 1G networks, the Nordic countries 2004
• Figure 1.11 - Mobitex networks, the Nordic countries 2004
• Figure 1.12 - 2G networks, the Nordic countries 2004
• Figure 1.13 - Planned and operational 3G networks, the Nordic countries 2004.
• Figure 1.14 - Mobile originated traffic as share of total traffic (Nordic area 2000-2008).
• Figure 1.15 - Total revenues from mobile services, - million (Nordic area 2000-2008).
• Figure 1.16 - Total voice traffic, million minutes (Nordic area 2000-2008).
• Figure 1.17 - Total number of SMS sent, million messages (Nordic area 2000-2008)
• Figure 2.1 - 2G networks, Denmark
• Figure 2.2 - 3G networks, Denmark
• Figure 2.3 - Selected telecom market statistics (Denmark 2000-2004)
• Figure 2.4 - Mobile subscriptions and penetration (Denmark 2000-2004)
• Figure 2.5 - Mobile penetration and million subscriptions by type (Denmark 2000-2008).
• Figure 2.6 - Average monthly minutes of usage per subscriber (Denmark 2000-2008).
• Figure 2.7 - Average number of SMS per subscriber and month (Denmark 2000-2008).
• Figure 2.8 - Mobile originated traffic as share of total traffic (Denmark 2000-2008)
• Figure 2.9 - Total revenues from mobile services, - million (Denmark 2000-2008).
• Figure 2.10 - Market shares in terms of number of subscribers (Denmark, Q2-2004)
• Figure 2.11 - Operational data, 3 Denmark 2003-2004.
• Figure 2.12 - Operational data, SONOFON 2003-2004.
• Figure 2.13 - Financial data, SONOFON 2000-2004.
• Figure 2.14 - Operational data, TDC Mobil 2003-2004.
• Figure 2.15 - Financial data, TDC Mobil International domestic operations 2000-2004.
• Figure 2.16 - Operational data, TeliaSonera Denmark 2003-2004.
• Figure 2.17 - Financial data, TeliaSonera Denmark 2000-2004.
• Figure 2.18 - Operational data, Faeroese Telecom 2001-2004.
• Figure 2.19 - Financial data, Faeroese Telecom 2001-2003.
• Figure 2.20 - Operational data, Kall 2002-2004.
• Figure 2.21 - Operational data, Tele Greenland 2001-2004.
• Figure 2.22 - Financial data, Tele Greenland Group 2000-2003.
• Figure 2.23 - Service providers and MVNOs (Denmark 2004).
• Figure 2.24 - Financial data, Telmore 2001-2003.
• Figure 3.1 - 2G networks, Finland
• Figure 3.2 - 3G networks, Finland
• Figure 3.3 - Selected telecom market statistics (Finland 2000-2004)
• Figure 3.4 - Mobile subscriptions and penetration (Finland 2000-2004)
• Figure 3.5 - Mobile penetration and million subscriptions by type (Finland 2000-2008)
• Figure 3.6 - Average monthly minutes of usage per subscriber (Finland 2000-2008).
• Figure 3.7 - Average number of SMS per subscriber and month (Finland 2000-2008).
• Figure 3.8 - Mobile originated traffic as share of total traffic (Finland 2000-2008).
• Figure 3.9 - Total revenues from mobile services, - million (Finland 2000-2008)
• Figure 3.10 - Market shares in terms of number of subscribers (Finland, Q2-2004).
• Figure 3.11 - Operational data, Elisa Matkapuhelinpalvelut 2003-2004.
• Figure 3.12 - Financial data, Elisa Corporation 2000-2004
• Figure 3.13 - Operational data, DNA 2003-2004
• Figure 3.14 - Financial data, Finnet Ltd 2003.
• Figure 3.15 - Operational data, TeliaSonera mobile operations Finland 2003-2004
• Figure 3.16 - Financial data, TeliaSonera Finland 2002-2004.
• Figure 3.17 - Service providers and MVNOs (Finland 2004)
• Figure 3.18 - Operational data, Saunalahti Group 2003-2004
• Figure 3.19 - Financial data, Saunalahti 2000-2004.
• Figure 4.1 - 2G networks, Iceland
• Figure 4.2 - Selected telecom market statistics (Iceland 2000-2004)
• Figure 4.3 - Mobile subscriptions and penetration (Iceland 2000-2004)
• Figure 4.4 - Mobile penetration and million subscriptions by type (Iceland 2000-2008).
• Figure 4.5 - Average monthly minutes of usage per subscriber (Iceland 2000-2008).
• Figure 4.6 - Average number of SMS per subscriber and month (Iceland 2000-2008).
• Figure 4.7 - Mobile originated traffic as share of total traffic (Iceland 2000-2008).
• Figure 4.8 - Total revenues from mobile services, - million (Iceland 2003-2008).
• Figure 4.9 - Market shares in terms of number of subscribers (Iceland, Q2-2004)
• Figure 4.10 - Financial data, Siminn 2000-2004.
• Figure 4.11 - Financial data, Og fjarskipti 2002-2004.
• Figure 5.1 - 2G networks, Norway.
• Figure 5.2 - 3G networks, Norway.
• Figure 5.3 - UMTS network deployment conditions, NetCom
• Figure 5.4 - UMTS network deployment conditions, Telenor
• Figure 5.5 - Selected telecom market statistics (Norway 2000-2004).
• Figure 5.6 - Mobile subscriptions and penetration (Norway 2000-2004).
• Figure 5.7 - Mobile penetration and million subscriptions by type (Norway 2000-2008).
• Figure 5.8 - Average monthly minutes of usage per subscriber (Norway 2000-2008)
• Figure 5.9 - Average number of SMS per subscriber and month (Norway 2000-2008)
• Figure 5.10 - Mobile originated traffic as share of total traffic (Norway 2000-2008)
• Figure 5.11 - Total revenues from mobile services, - million (Norway 2000-2008)
• Figure 5.12 - Market shares in terms of number of subscribers (Norway, Q2-2004)
• Figure 5.13 - Operational data, NetCom 2003-2004
• Figure 5.14 - Financial data, NetCom 2000-2004.
• Figure 5.15 - Operational data, Telenor 2003-2004
• Figure 5.16 - Financial data, Telenor Mobil Norway 2001-2004.
• Figure 5.17 - Service providers and MVNOs (Norway 2004).
• Figure 6.1 - 2G networks, Sweden.
• Figure 6.2 - 3G networks, Sweden.
• Figure 6.3 - Selected telecom market statistics (Sweden 2000-2004).
• Figure 6.4 - Mobile subscriptions and penetration (Sweden 2000-2004)
• Figure 6.5 - Mobile penetration and million subscriptions by type (Sweden 2000-2008)
• Figure 6.6 - Average monthly minutes of usage per subscriber (Sweden 2000-2008)
• Figure 6.7 - Average number of SMS per subscriber and month (Sweden 2000-2008).
• Figure 6.8 - Mobile originated traffic as share of total traffic (Sweden 2000-2008).
• Figure 6.9 - Total revenues from mobile services, - million (Sweden 2000-2008)
• Figure 6.10 - Market shares in terms of number of subscribers (Sweden, Q2-004).
• Figure 6.11 - Operational data, 3 Sweden 2003-2004.
• Figure 6.12 - Financial data, Hi3G Access 2001-2003
• Figure 6.13 - Operational data, Tele2 Sweden 2003-2004.
• Figure 6.14 - Financial data, Tele2 Sweden 2002-2004
• Figure 6.15 - Operational data, TeliaSonera Sweden 2003-2004
• Figure 6.16 - Financial data, TeliaSonera Sweden 2002-2004.
• Figure 6.17 - Operational data, Vodafone Sweden 2003-2004.
• Figure 6.18 - Financial data, Vodafone Sweden 2000-2003
• Figure 6.19 - Service providers and MVNOs (Sweden 2004)
• Figure 6.20 - Operational data, Telenor Mobile Sweden 2003-2004
• Figure 7.1 - Key players on the Nordic and Baltic wireless market
• Figure 7.2 - Mobile subsidiaries of Elisa Corporation (2004).
• Figure 7.3 - Financial data, Elisa Corporation 2000-2004
• Figure 7.4 - Operational strategy of Elisa Corporation
• Figure 7.5 - Mobile subsidiaries of Hi3G Access (2004).
• Figure 7.6 - Financial data, Hi3G Access 2000-2003
• Figure 7.7 Mobile subsidiaries and associated companies of TDC Group (2004)
• Figure 7.8 - Financial data, TDC Group 2000-2004.
• Figure 7.9 - Mobile operations of the Tele2 Group (2004).
• Figure 7.10 - Financial data, Tele2 Group 2000-2004.
• Figure 7.11 - Mobile subsidiaries and associated companies of Telenor Group (2004).
• Figure 7.12 - Financial data, Telenor Group 2000-2004.
• Figure 7.13 Mobile subsidiaries and associated companies of TeliaSonera (2004).
• Figure 7.14 - Financial data, TeliaSonera 2001-2004.
• Figure 7.15 - Mobile subsidiaries and associated companies of Vodafone Group (2004)
• Figure 7.16 - Financial data, Vodafone Group 2000-2004
• Figure 8.1 - General network architecture of a GSM or CDMA system
• Figure 8.2 - Migration of standards towards 3G
• Figure 8.3 - IMT-2000 radio interface technologies and categories
• Figure 8.4 - ITUs vision on systems beyond 3G.