Abstract
Independent 5-year Defence and Security industry forecast for Japan.
Original Defence and security market research and the defence & security
sector trend analysis for the Japanese Defence and Security industry.
Competitive intelligence, Japanese defence & security company rankings and
SWOT analyses on international and domestic defence & security companies in
Japan.
The Japan Defence & Security Report has been researched at source in 2007, and
features latest-available data covering all headline indicators; 5-year
industry forecasts for Japan through end-; company rankings and competitive
landscapes covering national and multinational arms and components
manufacturers, electronic and software producers, and companies providing
defence solutions, as well as analysis of latest industry developments, trends
and regulatory changes in Japan.
Business Monitor International' s Japanese Defence & Security Report provides
professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and
researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence
on the Japanese defence & security industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI' s Independent 5-Year Defence & Security Industry Forecast on
Japan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic
business planning in the Japanese defence and security market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Japanese Defence & Security
Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and
major deals, projects and investments in Japan
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Japanese Defence & Security Intelligence &
Company SWOTS on your peers and competitors through company rankings by sales,
market share, investments and leading products and services.
Executive Summary
On December 3 2008, Japan joined around 100 other countries (notable
exceptions being the US, China and Russia) in signing a ground-breaking treaty
banning stockpiling and use of cluster bombs. Foreign Minister Hirofumi
Nakasone committed some US$7mn to clean-up projects in areas affected by
cluster bombs.
For historical reasons, US military forces remain a commanding presence in
Japan. In Q408, Japanese and US officials met with leaders from fourteen local
government prefectures hosting US military services. The meeting encouraged
the governments of both countries to work together to address the
environmental issues that stem from base hosting. More meetings in a similar
vein are slated to be held in the future, although they will not supplant the
well-established Japan-US joint commission that oversees the Status of Forces
Agreement (SFA). Meanwhile, in November 2008, US Ambassador Thomas Schieffer
met Defence Minister Yasukazu Hamada to discuss the realignment of US military
facilities in Japan scheduled for completion by 2014. Schieffer expressed his
hope that Japan would bolster its budgetary contribution to ensure that the
deadline will be met. The project involves the relocation of the US Marine
Corps' Futenma Air Station to the Okinawa Prefecture.
In a blow to the Japanese missile defence shield program, in November 2008
defence ministry officials announced that a Maritime Self-Defence Force
destroyer had failed to shoot down a mock ballistic missile in space. Since
the August 1998 launch of a ballistic missile by North Korea, Japan has been
particularly keen to develop an effective missile defence shield with the
assistance of the US.
The last year has seen Japan engage in a number of bilateral and multilateral
forums with its Asia Pacific neighbours. Q408 saw Japan and South Korea hold
talks in Fukuoka, Japan to discuss regional security issues and defence
policies. The eighth such dialogue since 1998, the meeting was a prologue to a
trilateral summit between Japan, South Korea and China held on December 13
2008. Meanwhile, Japan and India have signed a declaration on security
co-operation to establish a partnership that will be ' an essential pillar for
the future architecture of the region,' according to Indian Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh. The partnership paves the way for joint exercises, disaster
management and counter-terrorism, and is only the third such agreement to be
signed by Japan - the others being with Australia and the US.
Turning to domestic politics, we note that Japan' s new prime minister, Taro
Aso, will have limited powers to reform the economy. The key to reviving the
economy over the long term ultimately rests in changing the political system.
In the absence of a massive shakeup of the political scene, we see little
reason to expect significant economic reform.
Japan' s economy entered Q408 in its weakest state in seven years, and this has
already forced Prime Minister Aso to prioritise economic growth over
structural reform. Real GDP shrank by a downwardly revised 3.0% annualised
rate in Q208, compared with a preliminary reading of 2.4%. On a
quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis the economy contracted by 0.8%, with external
demand down 0.1 percentage points (pps) and domestic demand 0.7pps. If this
decline persists throughout Q408, then Japan will be in technical recession -
at least by the most common acceptance of the term - for the first time
since late 2001. Even if Japan avoids a technical recession, it is clear that
the country will experience a period of below-trend growth in 2008-2009.
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