Abstract
The Romanian Federation of Transporters (FORT) called on the country' s prime
minister to offer haulage
firms a respite from road tolls, as the sector
has been hit heavily by the economic downturn and there are
fears that as
many as 50% of freight transporters are near bankruptcy. BMI believes that the
lifting of
tolls would benefit Romania' s road freight sector in the short
term, but a long-term strategy to upgrade the
country' s road network must
be put in place. Mediafax, a Bucharest media group, reported that FORT had
sent the Romanian prime minister a letter calling for freight transporters to
be allowed a three-month
(December 1, 2008-March 1, 2009) reprieve from
paying road tolls. The letter stated that, due to the fact
that production
in Romania has decreased - and with it, imports and exports, ' some 45-50% of
Romanian
transport companies are currently on the brink of bankruptcy,
because of unpaid leasing, commercial
loans not covered and overdue
taxes.'
In our latest Romania Freight Transport Report, BMI predicts that
overall road freight traffic will grow
by an average of 2.3% every year in
the 2009-2013 period, lower than would otherwise be the case
because of
the 2009-2010 recession. Various factors support this prediction. Because of
the global and
European slowdown, the Romanian economy is itself set to
grow at an average rate of 1.6% over the next
five years. Thanks to
European Union (EU) membership from the beginning of 2007, funds are still
available from Brussels for infrastructure development exists. Closer
integration with the wider European
economy will be important, with trade
growing strongly and physical links to the main European
transport
corridors opening up. Rail freight traffic should grow by 1.3% per annum on
average. Inland
waterway traffic will rise by an annual average of 1.9% as
bottlenecks are removed from the Danube.
Maritime freight will grow by an
annual average of 2.8%. Airfreight will see growth of an annual average
of
2.9%, reflecting the impact of tougher market conditions in 2009. The total
value of transport and
communications GDP will rise to US$24.1bn in
nominal terms by 2013, representing 11.3% of
Romania' s GDP. The transport
and communications sector employed 455,000 people, or 5.0% of the
labour
force in 2007. We see that figure falling marginally to 452,900 by 2013.
Romania has a composite score of 63.5 out of 100 for its BMI freight transport
business environment
rating. This places it in the upper range among its
European peers. The country scores well for long-term
political risk,
transport infrastructure growth and transport intensity (an indicator of the
dynamism of
foreign trade). However, it does less well in areas such as
long-term economic risk and the regulatory and
competitive
environments.
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