Abstract
In April, Italy and Russia were holding talks over expanding the Blue Stream
pipeline, which currently
transports gas from Russia to Turkey, and on to
Italy, according to Italian industry minister Claudio
Scajola. The two
countries are already partners in Blue Stream. Italy' s Eni signed a Strategic
Alliance
with Gazprom in February 1998 to develop projects together in
third countries and to conduct joint
activities in gas transportation.
Under that agreement, Eni and Gazprom developed the US$3.4bn Blue
Stream
gas pipeline that transports 16bn cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas from
Russia to Turkey at full
capacity. Eni' s Chief Executive Paolo Scaroni met
his Gazprom counterpart Alexei Miller in Moscow on
April 6 to discuss the
companies' energy co-operation. Bloomberg has reported that Italy is
considering
two possible expansion routes for Blue Stream, one ending in
the southern town of Brindisi and the other
in the northern town of
Trieste.
In our latest Turkey Freight Transport Report, BMI concludes that
freight carried across all modes of
transport, measured in million
tonnes-km (mntkm) is set to grow by an annual average of 2.9% across the
2009-2013 forecast period. Various factors support this prediction. As a
result of the current sharp
recession, Turkish economic growth will
average 2.3% per annum in the next five years, less than half the
6.1%
rate achieved in the preceding five years. More importantly, however, Turkey
is set to become a
pipeline hub for Europe. The BTC (Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan)
and the Nabucco line are among several
projects, initially devised to meet
Turkish energy demand, that have also drawn growing European
interest as a
gas supply route from the energy-rich Caspian. Among other plans for the
energy corridor are
an oil pipeline between Samsun on the Black Sea and
Ceyhan, as well as two gas pipelines from Russia,
which wants to extend
the Blue Stream pipeline to Israel. Turkey receives gas via a pipeline from
Iran,
while the Shakh-Deniz project, now functioning, is bringing
Azerbaijani gas from the Caspian to Turkey.
Pipeline developments are a
bright spot against a generally subdued outlook for the freight sector as
a
whole, because of the adverse international economic climate in 2009. By
the end of the forecast period to
2013, sea freight is anticipated to be
the largest sub-sector, accounting for approximately 50% of all
shipments,
compared with 43% for road freight. By transport mode, we expect the fastest
growing to be
airfreight (annual average of 4.1%), followed by pipeline
throughput (3.8%), maritime cargo at 3.2%,
road haulage at 2.5%, and rail
freight at 1.3%. With a score of 60.5 out of 100, Turkey' s overall freight
rating is just above the average for the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region.
Turkey scores well in terms
of infrastructure growth, regulatory and
competitive environments, and the transport intensity index.
For the
2009-2013 forecast period, we expect the transport and communications sector
to continue
outpacing the economy as a whole. It will achieve average
annual growth of 2.5%, versus 2.3% for
overall GDP. The total value of
transport and communications GDP will rise to US$103.8bn in nominal
terms
by 2013, representing 11.4% of Turkey' s GDP.
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