Abstract
A flash estimate provided by the Central Statistical Office shows Polish
economic growth slowing to
3.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) during Q408 from 4.8%
the previous quarter. We expect growth to continue
slowing through 2009,
with the economy likely to dip into recession during H209. Despite the
deterioration in Poland' s macroeconomic fundamentals, we nonetheless believe
that the economy will
emerge as the regional outperformer, especially
compared with heavily trade dependent Czech Republic
and post fiscal
crisis Hungary, which will both dive deep into recession this year.
According to preliminary data provided by the Central Statistical Office, the
Polish economy posted
growth of around 3.0% during the final quarter of
2008, bringing the full-year figure down to 5.4%, from
a bumper 6.6% the
previous year. While growth has continued to slow throughout the year, it has
not
undergone an outright collapse during H208 as has been the case in
some of the more precarious
economies in emerging Europe - particularly
Ukraine and the Baltics. That said, we hold to our view that
growth
momentum will continue to slow during 2009 as the eurozone heads deeper into
recession, and
domestic demand increasingly strains under the weight of
widespread deleveraging, tight global liquidity
and debt consolidation in
the private sector. Moreover, while the first and second quarters of 2009
may
still see positive growth, especially given that Poland' s economic
cycle continues to lag the eurozone, we
believe that the economy will be
hard pressed to avoid a recession during the second half of the year. This
underscores our projection for a 0.4% contraction in 2009.
In Central and
Eastern Europe (CEE), we profile 22 multi-national insurance companies. In
alphabetical
order, these are AEGON, AIG, Allianz, Aviva, AXA, Cardif,
ERGO, Eureko, Fortis, Generali,
GRAWE, Groupama, HDI-Gerling, HSBC
Insurance, ING, MetLife, Prudential Financial, QBE,
RSA, UNIQA, Vienna
Insurance Group and Zurich Financial Services. We also discuss the
regional
presence of Belgium' s KBC and Austria' s Erste Bank through a
number of insurance subsidiaries and
explain the importance, for each of
the various countries, of purely domestic firms.
Over the course of 2008,
actual total premiums in Poland rose by 17% to PLN59,353mn. Non-life
premiums rose by 11% to PLN20,089mn, while life premiums rose by 21% to
PLN39,264mn.
Between now and the end of the forecast period, we expect
that annual non-life premiums will grow by
PLN11,733mn, while annual life
premiums should grow by PLN3,489mn.
Growth in non-life premiums should be
driven by the general growth of nominal GDP plus a rise in nonlife
penetration from the current level of 1.54% to 2.00%
Growth in life
premiums should be driven by the change in the overall population and a rise
in life
density from US$274.44 to US$420.00 per capita.
BMI' s
Insurance Business Environment Rating is 62.8.
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