Abstract
In light of the speed with which economic activity in Slovakia continues to
unwind, we have revised
down our 2009 real GDP growth forecast to -2.5%,
from our previous projection of -0.9%. Given the
ongoing economic slowdown
in the eurozone, the outlook for the export-oriented manufacturing
industry
is particularly bleak. Beyond 2009, we expect trend growth to
settle at a much lower rate than in previous
years, averaging 3.4% between
2011-2013.
Economic activity in Slovakia is slowing at an alarming rate,
according to the latest data from the
Statistical Office of the Slovak
Republic (SSO), with real GDP growth coming in at 2.5% in Q408, down
from
6.6% the previous quarter and from 14.3% in Q407. Although Slovakia remained
the fastest
growing economy in Central Europe in 2008, with full-year
growth at 6.4%, this was down considerably
from the 10.4% and 8.6% rates
of expansion recorded in 2007 and 2006, respectively.
The most significant
declines in Q408 were recorded in the gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)
and
export components. Indeed, after having posted growth of 2.7% in Q3,
exports contracted by 7.8% in the
last quarter of the year, a sharp
contrast to the 16.0% rate of growth recorded during the same period a
year earlier. In addition, although GFCF remained in positive territory,
registering growth of 1.4% in Q4,
it was nevertheless well below the 7.3%
and 8.9% outturns registered in Q3 and Q407, respectively.
In Central and
Eastern Europe (CEE), we profile 22 multi-national insurance companies. In
alphabetical
order, these are AEGON, AIG, Allianz, Aviva, AXA,
Cardif,ERGO, Eureko, Fortis, Generali,
GRAWE, Groupama, HDI-Gerling, HSBC
Insurance, ING, MetLife, Prudential Financial, QBE,
RSA, UNIQA,Vienna
Insurance Group and Zurich Financial Services.
Over the course of 2008,
estimated total premiums in Slovakia rose by 7% to EUR2,025mn. Non-life
premiums rose by 2% to EUR1,082mn while life premiums rose by 13% to
EUR943mn.
Between now and the end of the forecast period, we expect that
annual non-life premiums will grow by
EUR743mn, while annual life premiums
should grow by EUR785mn.
Growth in non-life premiums should be driven by
the general growth of nominal GDP plus a rise in nonlife
penetration from
the current level of 1.6% to 2.2%.
Growth in life premiums should be
driven by the change in the overall population and a rise in life density
from US$256.75 to US$400.00 per capita.
BMI' s Insurance Business
Environment Rating is 60.3.
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