Abstract
The Port of Antwerp, one of the Europe' s largest, registered a throughput
increase of 4% year-on-year (yo-
y) to 190mn tonnes in 2008. The port
recorded a rise of 7.7% y-o-y in the shipment of containerised
freight to
102mn tonnes in the same period. The port also reported container volumes of
over 8.6mn
twenty-feet equivalent units (TEUs), up 6% y-o-y in 2008.
Belgium' s geographical location allows it to
play a multimodal hub role,
located close to the major French and German economies and with Antwerp
as
a significant north European port. In 2004, Antwerp Port handled 135.5mn
tonnes of goods, making it
Europe' s second-largest port. It ranks among
the top 10 ports in the world. The latest figures show it was
ranked
number 13 worldwide in terms of container throughput. The port' s business
development
manager, Annelies De Jongh, was recently quoted by
London-based trade publication Lloyd' s List saying
it was focusing on
capturing a greater share of Chinese box traffic into Europe once a recovery
begins to
make itself felt: ' We are looking beyond the crisis,' she said.
The port had sent trade missions to the
Yangtze and Pearl River regions of
China in 2008. ' We want to move more Chinese cargo and so we
want to raise
our visibility in that market and have more recognition,' said De Jongh,
adding, however,
that Antwerp' s traditional trade routs to North and South
America and Africa would not be neglected.
In our latest Belgium Freight
Transport Report, however the overriding story is about the impact of the
recession on the freight sector. We are now expecting Belgian GDP to fall by
2.3% in 2009, and for zero
growth in 2010. As a result, average annual GDP
growth across the 2009-2013 five-year forecast period
will be only 0.7%.
We expect annual average growth in freight carried across all modes, measured
in
million tonnes-km (mntkm), to be 0.7% during the forecast period, on a
par with the economy as a whole.
Despite the poor market conditions, this
rate will be supported by greater infrastructure investment.
Although we
are relatively confident of its resilience, the risks to the freight sector do
lie on the
downside, particularly because of the intensity of the European
and global recession.
For the 2009-2013 forecast period, we expect the
value of activity in the transport and communications
sector to continue
outpacing the economy as a whole. It will achieve average annual growth of
1.1%,
versus 0.7% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and
communications GDP will rise to US$19bn
in nominal terms by 2013,
representing 6.8% of Belgium' s GDP.
Our overall forecast for freight
carried in Belgium is for low growth based on a mature industry, good
infrastructure, a reduced economic growth rate, and the country' s openness to
foreign trade. We see the
best performing sector to be airfreight, which -
with annual average growth of 1.0% - will come through
another period of
relative turbulence in the sector caused by a new peak in energy costs. As a
smaller
European carrier, SN Brussels Airlines looks like being absorbed
by Lufthansa in the next round of
regional consolidation, but this will
not necessarily be negative for airfreight volume growth, and could
conceivably boost it further. Rail freight and pipeline throughput are both
expected to grow by an annual
average of 0.8%, just ahead of GDP expansion
- this is due to new investment in infrastructure. We see
road freight
broadly in line with GDP, with an average annual growth of 0.7%, reflecting
the impact of
the recession on freight demand. Sea freight will grow by an
annual average of 0.7%, also in line with the
economy. Inland water
transport will bring up the rear, with growth of 0.4% per annum.
| 
View Cart
