Abstract
In Q209 BMI is making a number of changes which we hope will substantially
improve the impact and
value of our reports on the commercial banking
sectors of various countries.
Since we introduced the commercial banking
reports in mid-2004, we have sought to generate insights by
combining and
combining information from a number of sources. We have collated data
pertinent to
entire commercial banking sectors that has been published by
central banks, regulators and/or trade
associations. We have collated
basic information concerning individual market participants. We have also
considered BMI' s current views on the economic outlook for the country in
question. Many aspects have
been - and continue to be - brought together
in a systematic way through our proprietary Commercial
Bank Business
Environment Ratings (CBBER), which facilitate cross-country comparisons. The
key
changes in Q209 - and what they mean for readers are as follows:
Comprehensively Upgraded Database
We have now incorporated as much data as
we can for 2008. We have also considered the size of total
bank assets,
client loans, capital and client deposits in relation to the overall economy,
as well as absolute
terms. We have calculated figures in local currency
terms, US dollar terms and euro terms. We have
extended our forecast
horizon out to 2013. We have also improved the coverage of historical data in
this
report. Our complete dataset is available for download from BMI' s
website.
Concise Analysis Of The Sector
The structural strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) of commercial banking do not
usually change much from quarter-to-quarter. Nevertheless, they need to be
explained in some clarity -
even if only so that they may provide a
context for the rest of the report. We have re-examined and (in
most
cases) substantially extended the SWOT analysis. Much more than previously,
the SWOT analysis
represents an ' at a glance' overview of what really
matters for the overall commercial banking sector.
Broader And Deeper
International Context
For a very long time before the global financial
crisis reached a critical phase in mid-September 2008,
commercial banking
was inherently international in nature. In other words, it was a rare
commercial
banking sector indeed that was totally isolated from
cross-border influences. However, international
influences have become
even more important than before as a result of the crisis. In response to
this, we
have extended the range of countries whose commercial banking
sectors we consider each quarter by 11 -
Bahrain, Jordan, Kazakhstan,
Kenya, Kuwait, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, the UK, the US and Vietnam are
now
analysed. Our reports also include new Global and Regional Outlooks.
Deeper Economic Analysis
We include more extensive coverage of BMI' s views
of the economic outlook for each country. We also
include a section that
deals with monetary and exchange rate policy.
Clearer Identification Of
Protagonists
We now look more closely at the mandates of central banks,
regulators and trade associations.
Clearer Definition Of The Commercial
Banking Universe
We now include a specific definition of the universe of
commercial banks in each country. In most cases,
we also include a
comprehensive list of identifiable institutions. (The main exception to this
is the US,
where we confine the list to the 50 largest banks in terms of
deposits.) By defining the commercial
banking universe, and listing a much
greater number of institutions that are active in each country, we
hope
that our reports are of much greater value to other researchers.
New
Company Profiles
In Q209, we have sought to include 10 brief profiles of
leading banks in each of the countries that we
cover. We will add
additional profiles in coming months. Wherever possible, we have tried to
quantify
the total assets, client loans, bond portfolio, client deposits
and capital of each institution. Eventually, it
should be possible for us
to profile most - or indeed all - of the banks that are active in the
countries that
we follow.
Naturally, we will continue to improve the
structure and content of the reports over time. The extended
Commercial
Banking SWOT Analysis below summarises what we see as the key issues in this
report.
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