Abstract
In world terms, the underdeveloped Egyptian commercial banking sector is large
and rapidly growing.
Past constraints on development include the
uninspiring business environment, the general lack of
dynamism and scale
within the sector, the fragmented competitive landscape, and the
disappointingly
slow pace of privatisation and reform.
In Q209 BMI is
making a number of changes which we hope will substantially improve the impact
and
value of our reports on the commercial banking sectors of various
countries.
Since we introduced the commercial banking reports in mid-2004,
we have sought to generate insights by
combining and combining information
from a number of sources. We have collated data pertinent to
entire
commercial banking sectors that has been published by central banks,
regulators and/or trade
associations. We have collated basic information
concerning individual market participants. We have also
considered BMI' s
current views on the economic outlook for the country in question. Many
aspects have
been - and continue to be - brought together in a systematic
way through our proprietary Commercial
Bank Business Environment Ratings
(CBBER), which facilitate cross-country comparisons. The key
changes in
Q209 - and what they mean for readers are as follows:
Comprehensively
Upgraded Database
We have now incorporated as much data as we can for
2008. We have also considered the size of total
bank assets, client loans,
capital and client deposits in relation to the overall economy, as well as
absolute
terms. We have calculated figures in local currency terms, US
dollar terms and euro terms. We have
extended our forecast horizon out to
2013. We have also improved the coverage of historical data in this
report. Our complete dataset is available for download from BMI' s website.
Concise Analysis Of The Sector
The structural strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities and threats (SWOT) of commercial banking do not
usually
change much from quarter-to-quarter. Nevertheless, they need to be explained
in some clarity -
even if only so that they may provide a context for the
rest of the report. We have re-examined and (in
most cases) substantially
extended the SWOT analysis. Much more than previously, the SWOT analysis
represents an ' at a glance' overview of what really matters for the overall
commercial banking sector.
Broader And Deeper International Context
For a very long time before the global financial crisis reached a critical
phase in mid-September 2008,
commercial banking was inherently
international in nature. In other words, it was a rare commercial
banking
sector indeed that was totally isolated from cross-border influences. However,
international
influences have become even more important than before as a
result of the crisis. In response to this, we
have extended the range of
countries whose commercial banking sectors we consider each quarter by 11
-
Bahrain, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kuwait, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, the
UK, the US and Vietnam are
now analysed. Our reports also include new
Global and Regional Outlooks.
Deeper Economic Analysis
We include more
extensive coverage of BMI' s views of the economic outlook for each country. We
also
include a section that deals with monetary and exchange rate
policy.
Clearer Identification Of Protagonists
We now look more
closely at the mandates of central banks, regulators and trade
associations.
Clearer Definition Of The Universe
We now include a
specific definition of the universe of commercial banks in each country. In
most cases,
we also include a comprehensive list of identifiable
institutions. (The main exception to this is the US,
where we confine the
list to the 50 largest banks in terms of deposits.) By defining the universe,
and
listing a much greater number of institutions that are active in each
country, we hope that our reports are
of much greater value to other
researchers.
New Company Profiles
In Q209, we have sought to include
10 brief profiles of leading banks in each of the countries that we
cover.
We will add additional profiles in coming months. Wherever possible, we have
tried to quantify
the total assets, client loans, bond portfolio, client
deposits and capital of each institution. Eventually, it
should be
possible for us to profile most - or indeed all - of the banks that are active
in the countries that
we follow.
Naturally, we will continue to
improve the structure and content of the reports over time. The extended
Commercial Banking SWOT Analysis below summarises what we see as the key
issues in this report.
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