Iran Commercial Banking Report Q2 2009

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 5
Table: Levels (IRRbn) 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) 5
Table: Levels At July 2008 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2009-2013 (%) 5
Table: Ranking Out Of 45 Countries Reviewed In 2009 6
Table: Projected Levels, 2008-2013 (IRR bn) 6
Table: Projected Levels, 2008-2013 (US$bn) 6
Overview - Commercial Banking Sector of Iran 7
SWOT Analysis9
Iran Commercial Banking SWOT 9
Iran Political SWOT 10
Iran Economic SWOT 11
Iran Business Environment SWOT 12
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating13
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 13
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Analysis 14
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology 16
Table: Middle East Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 17
Global Outlook18
Regional Outlook20
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios, 2008 20
Table: Anticipated Developments In 2009 21
Table: Comparison of Total Assets, Client Loans and Client Deposits (US$bn) 22
Table: Comparison of Per Capita Deposits, Late 2008 (US$) 23
Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields 24
Commercial Bank Sector Outlook 25
Macroeconomic Activity 25
Table: Iran - Economic Activity, 2006 - 2013 28
Fiscal Policy 28
Exchange Rate Policy 31
Islamic Finance - Quo Vadis? 33
Some Hard Numbers 33
Under-Recognised Challenges 37
The Global Financial Crisis 38
What Really Matters: Indicators To Watch In 2009 39
Conclusion 41
Market Structure43
Protagonists 43
Table: Protagonists In Bahrain Commercial Banking Sector 43
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe 43
List Of Banks 44
Table: Commercial Government-Owned Banks 44
Table: Private Banks 44
Table: Near-Bank/ Specialised Government Banks 44
Company Profiles45
Bank Melli Iran 45
Key Statistics for Bank Melli Iran, 2006-2007 (IRRbn) 45
Bank Mellat 46
Key Statistics for Bank Mellat, 2006-2007 (IRRbn) 46
Post Bank of Iran 47
Bank Refah 48
Key Statistics for Bank Refah, 2006-2007 (IRRbn) 48
Bank Saderat Iran 49
Sepah Bank 49
Tejarat Bank 49
Egtesad Novin Bank 50
Key Statistics for Egtesad Novin Bank, 2006-2007 (IRRbn) 50
Karafarin Bank 51
Key Statistics for Karafarin Bank, 2006-2007 (IRRbn) 51
Parsian Bank 52
Key Statistics for Parsian Bank, 2007 (IRRbn) 52
Methodology53
Basis Of Projections 54
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating 54
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 57