Canada Telecommunications Report Q2 2009

Abstract

Canada' s mobile market seems to be resisting the effects of the economic downturn so far with the decline
in growth much smaller in 2008 than seen in 2007 and end of year subscribers beating BMI' s earlier
estimates. There were 21.5mn connections in the market at the end of 2008 with the penetration rate
almost reaching 65%. Canada remains a market with slow steady growth. This may yet change with a
new mobile operator expected to enter in 2009 and another in 2010 that will see additional competition
added to the market and could see things shaken up. As it is Rogers remains the largest operator in the
market with its market share largely unchanged ahead of Bell and Telus in second and third-place
respectively although their current trajectories could see them swap places in future.
As growth slows and voice services become an ever decreasing proportion of total mobile revenues BMI
has added a mobile content section to the report with an overview of some value-added services available
in the Canadian market as well as a look at some of the bigger content being provided. The overarching
theme from operators seems to be encouraging subscribers to use their mobile as they would a PC with
email available on many handsets as well as services including social networking, instant messaging and
mobile TV making the mobile handset more than just a calling device.
With our new section in the mobile data analysis chapter we have made the decision to leave fixed-line
and broadband analysis untouched over this quarter with a full and extended update expected in our next
report. Similarly our forecasts for these sectors will be completely revised and updated in the next report.
In the meantime the effects of difficult economic times may yet be showing in subscriber spending
patterns with operators reporting a decline in ARPU in the final quarter of the year. While this may be a
short term blip it could equally be the result of subscribers tightening their belts as unemployment hits
markets and credit conditions worsen.