Table of Contents
Executive Summary
5
Bulgaria Security SWOT 6
Bulgaria Defence Industry SWOT 7
Bulgaria Political SWOT 7
Bulgaria Economic SWOT 8
Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT 8
Political Overview9
Security Risk Analysis14
BMI' s Security Ratings 14
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings 14
Table: Central And Eastern Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability Index 15
Regional Security: Europe 15
Overview 15
International Terrorism 18
Criminal Activities 19
Bulgaria' s Security Risk Ratings 20
Conflict Risk 20
Terrorism Risk 20
Physical Safety Risk 20
Security Overview 21
Internal Security Situation 21
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups 21
External Security Situation 22
Bilateral And Multilateral Security Relations 23
Defence Industry 25
Armed Forces 25
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (Including conscripted, ' 000) 25
Modernisation Programme 26
International Deployment 27
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 28
Market Overview29
Industry Trends And Developments 30
Table: Key Players In Bulgaria' s Defence Sector 31
Arms Trade Overview 32
Procurement Trends And Developments 32
Industry Forecast Scenario 34
Army Enlargements 34
Government Expenditure 34
Table: Bulgaria' s Defence Sector, 2004-2012 (' 000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 35
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario 36
Economic Activity 36
Industrial 37
Balance of Payments 39
Bulgaria Defence & Security Report Q2 2009
External Debt 41
Monetary Policy 42
Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity, 2005-2013 45
Company Profiles46
Arsenal 46
Arcus 47
Country Snapshot: Bulgaria Demographic Data 48
Section 1: Population Source: UN Population Division 48
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 48
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 49
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 49
Table: Education, 2002-2005 49
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 49
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 50
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 50
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 51
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 52
BMI Forecast Modelling53
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 53
Defence Industry 53
Sources 54
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