Abstract
In Q209 BMI is making a number of changes which we hope will substantially
improve the impact and
value of our reports on the commercial banking
sectors of various countries.
Since we introduced the commercial banking
reports in mid-2004, we have sought to generate insights by
combining
information from a number of sources. We have collated data pertinent to the
entire
commercial banking sector that has been published by central banks,
regulators and/or trade associations.
We have collated basic information
concerning individual market participants. We have also considered
BMI' s
current views on the economic outlook for the country in question. Many
aspects have been - and
continue to be - brought together in a systematic
way through our proprietary Commercial Bank Business
Environment Ratings
(CBBER), which facilitate cross-country comparisons. The key changes in
Q209,
and what they mean for readers are as follows:
Comprehensively
Upgraded Database
We have now incorporated as much data as possible for
2008. We have also considered the size of total
bank assets, client loans,
capital and client deposits in relation to the overall economy, as well as
in
absolute terms. We have calculated figures in local currency terms, US
dollar terms and euro terms. We
have extended our forecast horizon out to
2013. We have also improved the coverage of historical data in
this
report. Our complete dataset is available for download from BMI' s website.
Concise Analysis Of The Sector
The structural strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities and threats (SWOT) of commercial banking do not
usually
change much from quarter-to-quarter. Nevertheless, they need to be explained
in some clarity - to
provide a context for the rest of the report. We have
re-examined and (in most cases) substantially
extended the SWOT analysis.
The SWOT analysis now represents an ' at a glance' overview of what
really
matters for the overall commercial banking sector.
Broader And Deeper
International Context
For a very long time before the global financial
crisis reached a critical phase in mid-September 2008,
commercial banking
was inherently international in nature. In other words, it was rare that a
commercial
banking sector was totally isolated from cross-border
influences. However, international influences have
become even more
important than before as a result of the crisis. In response to this, we have
extended
the range of countries whose commercial banking sectors we
consider each quarter by 11 - Bahrain,
Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kuwait,
Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, the UK, the US and Vietnam are now
analysed. Our
reports also include new Global and Regional Outlooks.Deeper Economic
Analysis
We include more extensive coverage of BMI' s views of the economic
outlook for each country. We also
include a section that deals with
monetary and exchange rate policy.
Clearer Identification Of
Protagonists
We now look more closely at the mandates of central banks,
regulators and trade associations.
Clearer Definition Of The Universe
We now include a specific definition of the universe of commercial banks in
each country. In most cases,
we also include a comprehensive list of
identifiable institutions. (The main exception to this is the US,
where we
confine the list to the 50 largest banks in terms of deposits.) By defining
the universe, and
listing a much greater number of institutions that are
active in each country, we hope that our reports are
of much greater value
to other researchers.
New Company Profiles
In Q209, we have sought to
include 10 brief profiles of leading banks in each of the countries that
we
cover. Additional profiles will be added in coming months. Wherever
possible, we have tried to quantify
the total assets, client loans, bond
portfolio, client deposits and capital of each institution. Eventually, it
should be possible for us to profile most - or indeed all - of the banks that
are active in the countries that
we follow.
Naturally, we will
continue to improve the structure and content of the reports over time. The
extended
Commercial Banking SWOT Analysis below summarises what we view as
the key issues in this report.
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