Abstract
In Q209 BMI is making a number of changes which we hope will substantially
improve the impact and
value of our reports on the commercial banking
sectors of various countries.
Since we introduced the commercial banking
reports in mid-2004, we have sought to generate insights by
collecting and
combining information from a number of sources. We have collated data
pertinent to entire
commercial banking sectors that has been published by
central banks, regulators and/or trade associations,
as well as basic
information concerning individual market participants. We have also considered
BMI' s
current views on the economic outlook for the country in question.
Many aspects have been - and
continue to be - brought together in a
systematic way through our proprietary Commercial Bank Business
Environment Ratings (CBBER), which facilitate cross-country comparisons. The
key changes in Q209
and what they mean for readers are as follows:
Comprehensively Upgraded Database
We have now incorporated as much data as
we can for 2008. We have also considered the size of total
bank assets,
client loans, capital and client deposits in relation to the overall economy,
as well as in
absolute terms. We have calculated figures in local currency
terms, US dollar terms and euro terms. We
have extended our forecast
horizon out to 2013. We have also improved the coverage of historical data
in
this report. Our complete dataset is available for download from BMI' s
website.
Concise Analysis Of The Sector
The structural strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) of commercial banking do not
usually change much from quarter-to-quarter. Nevertheless, they need to be
explained in some clarity -
even if only to provide a context for the rest
of the report. We have re-examined and (in most cases)
substantially
extended the SWOT analysis. Much more than previously, the SWOT analysis
represents an
' at a glance' overview of what really matters for the
overall commercial banking sector.
Broader And Deeper International
Context
For a very long time before the global financial crisis reached a
critical phase in mid-September 2008,
commercial banking was inherently
international in nature. In other words, it was a rare commercial
banking
sector indeed that was totally isolated from cross-border influences. However,
as a result of the
crisis, international influences have become even more
important than before. In response to this, we have
extended the range of
countries whose commercial banking sectors we consider each quarter by 11
-
Bahrain, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kuwait, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, the
UK, the US and Vietnam are
now analysed. Our reports also include new
Global and Regional Outlooks.
Deeper Economic Analysis
We include more
extensive coverage of BMI' s views of the economic outlook for each country. We
also
include a section that deals with monetary and exchange rate
policy.
Clearer Identification Of Protagonists
We now look more
closely at the mandates of central banks, regulators and trade
associations.
Clearer Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe
We
now include a specific definition of the universe of commercial banks in each
country. In most cases,
we also include a comprehensive list of
identifiable institutions. (The main exception to this is the US,
where we
confine the list to the 50 largest banks in terms of deposits.) By defining
the commercial
banking universe, and listing a much greater number of
institutions that are active in each country, we
hope that our reports are
of much greater value to other researchers.
New Company Profiles
In
Q209, we have sought to include 10 brief profiles of leading banks in each of
the countries that we
cover. We will add additional profiles in coming
months. Wherever possible, we have tried to quantify
the total assets,
client loans, bond portfolio, client deposits and capital of each institution.
Eventually, it
should be possible for us to profile most - or indeed all -
of the banks that are active in the countries that
we follow.
Naturally, we will continue to improve the structure and content of the
reports over time. The extended
Commercial Banking SWOT Analysis below
summarises what we see as the key issues in this report.
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