Abstract
The obstruction of Argentina' s main trucking routes worsened in late March
2009, stalling freight cargo
movement between the South American country
and its neighbours. Several blockades on major
highways were created by
agricultural workers, protesting against the government' s refusal to lower
export tariffs on soya beans. BMI notes that the dispute was the latest in a
series of protests which has
disrupted trade flow in Argentina and the
surrounding region. The strike, which began on March 20, led
to farmers
creating checkpoints at more than 60 of the country' s key roads, aimed at
preventing truckers
from transporting certain goods such as grain and
livestock. The protests escalated to affect trade volumes
between
Argentina and neighbouring Brazil, the largest single destination for
Argentine exports with
more than US$10bn worth of exports to the country
in 2007. The protests by farmers arose in reaction to
the Argentine
government blocking a bill to reduce the current 35% tariff on exports of soya
beans, the
main crop grown in the country.
For the 2009-2013 period we
are now expecting average annual freight growth across all transport modes
- measured in million tonnes-km (mntkm) - of only 0.7%. Various factors
support this core prediction.
Across our 2009-2013 forecast period, we
have reduced the average annual GDP growth forecast to only
0.6%, a pretty
dismal performance when compared to the 8.5% annual average registered in the
preceding
five-year period. The government of President Cristina Fernández
de Kirchner will find it more difficult
to keep the growth rates up in a
less supportive international economic climate, and the transport sector
will remain constrained by patchy infrastructure. On the plus side, the
freight industry is now
experiencing much more manageable fuel prices, but
this contribution to the bottom line will not be
enough to dispel the
gloom caused by slumping demand.
Road haulage will continue to be the
dominant freight transport mode. Investment is still needed in both
the
highways network and truck fleets, but recession will ease bottlenecks. Over
the forecast period
annual average growth in road freight carried will be
0.7%, down sharply from the preceding five years.
BMI now forecasts 0.9%
annual growth in rail freight over the next five years, with some new
investments still expected to go ahead. We are forecasting maritime traffic to
grow by an annual average
of 0.7% with lower grains exports this year
playing a part.
We give Argentina a freight transport rating of 54.7 (out
of a theoretical maximum of 100.0), which puts
it in the medium range of
key Latin American markets that BMI monitors. Positive factors contributing
to
the country' s score include the country' s long-term economic and
political risk assessments and potential
for growth in infrastructure. The
total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$44bn
in
nominal terms by 2013, representing 9.9% of Argentina' s GDP. The transport and
communications
sector employed around 666,000 people, or 7.1% of the
labour force, in 2008. We see the figure rising to
701,000 by 2013,
although as a proportion of the labour force it will remain unchanged at
7.1%.
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