Abstract
Australia is a developed market as far as its textile and clothing consumption
patterns are concerned, and
a medium-ranking world producer. BMI ranks it
as number 28 in the world in terms of textile and
clothing manufacturing
value added. In nominal terms we estimate that to have been worth US$2.98bn
in
2008. The industry is composed of small to medium-scale companies. As
protective tariffs have been
lifted they have lost market share to
imports, particularly from low cost Asian competitors such as China.
In
2007, imports totalled US$5.75bn, compared to exports of US$539mn. BMI expects
the current global
economic downturn will have an adverse effect on the
industry, with sales and output set to decline this
year and next.
We
estimate that overall Australian textiles and clothing manufacturing value
added, which fell by an
estimated 4.9% in 2007, contracted further by 6.7%
in 2008, and will have its worst year in 2009 with
contraction of 11.3%.
After a further fall of 7.6% in 2010, the industry will begin to contract more
slowly
with a predicted 7.0% drop in 2011. In the five years to 2008, BMI
estimates that the average annual
change in manufacturing value added was
-5.7%. In the next five years, we see the pace of annual change
deteriorating to an average of -6.5%. BMI expects textile and clothing exports
to shrink by 26.8% in
2009 (to US$359mn), with imports dropping by 17.1%
(to US$4.94bn). Exports, which contracted by an
average of 1.1% in the
five years to 2008, will turn positive in the five years to 2013.
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