Abstract
In Q209 BMI is making a number of changes which we hope will substantially
improve the impact and
value of our reports on the commercial banking
sectors of various countries.
Since we introduced the commercial banking
reports in mid-2004, we have sought to generate insights by
combining
information from a number of sources. We have collated data pertinent to
entire commercial
banking sectors from information published by central
banks, regulators and/or trade associations. We
have also gathered basic
information concerning individual market participants. In addition, we
have
considered BMI' s current views on the economic outlook for the
country in question. Many aspects have
been - and continue to be - brought
together in a systematic way through our proprietary Commercial
Bank
Business Environment Ratings (CBBER), which facilitate cross-country
comparisons. The key
changes in Q209 - and what they mean for readers -
are as follows:
Comprehensively Upgraded Database
We have now
incorporated as much data as we can for 2008. We have also considered the size
of total
bank assets; client loans; and capital and client deposits in
relation to the overall economy, as well as
absolute terms. We have
calculated figures in local currency terms, US dollar terms and euro terms.
We
have extended our forecast horizon out to 2013. We have also improved
the coverage of historical data in
this report. Our complete dataset is
available for download from BMI' s website.
Concise Analysis Of The
Sector
The structural strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats
(SWOT) of commercial banking do not
usually change much from
quarter-to-quarter. Nevertheless, they need to be explained in some clarity
-
even if only that they may provide a context for the remainder of the
report. We have re-examined and (in
most cases) substantially extended the
SWOT analysis. Much more than previously, the SWOT analysis
represents an
' at a glance' overview of what really matters for the overall commercial
banking sector.
Broader And Deeper International Context
For a very
long time before the global financial crisis reached a critical phase in
mid-September 2008,
commercial banking was inherently international in
nature. In other words, it was a rare commercial
banking sector indeed
that was totally isolated from cross-border influences. However, as a result
of the
crisis, international influences have become even more important
than before. In response to this, we have
extended the range of countries
whose commercial banking sectors we consider each quarter by 11 -
Bahrain,
Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kuwait, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, the UK, the US and
Vietnam are
now analysed. Our reports also include new Global and Regional
Outlooks.
Deeper Economic Analysis
We include more extensive coverage
of BMI' s views of the economic outlook for each country. We also
include a
section that deals with monetary and exchange rate policy.
Clearer
Identification Of Protagonists
We now look more closely at the mandates of
central banks, regulators and trade associations.
Clearer Definition Of
The Universe
We now include a specific definition of the universe of
commercial banks in each country. In most cases,
we also include a
comprehensive list of identifiable institutions. (The main exception to this
is the US,
where we confine the list to the 50 largest banks in terms of
deposits.) By defining the universe, and
listing a much greater number of
institutions that are active in each country, we hope that our reports are
of much greater value to other researchers.
New Company Profiles
In
Q209, we have sought to include 10 brief profiles of leading banks in each of
the countries that we
cover. We will add additional profiles in coming
months. Wherever possible, we have tried to quantify
the total assets,
client loans, bond portfolio, client deposits and capital of each institution.
Eventually, it
should be possible for us to profile most - or indeed all -
of the banks that are active in the countries we
follow.
Naturally, we
will continue to improve the structure and content of the reports over time.
The extended
Commercial Banking SWOT Analysis below summarises what we see
as the key issues in this report.
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