Abstract
Tourism Overview
Final data for 2008 show a marked weakening in the growth
of foreign tourist arrivals (compared with
2007), with an increase of just
over 1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to some 9.4mn. Domestic tourism was down
a
marginal 0.5% y-o-y. Overall tourism (domestic and foreign) numbers increased
1% to almost 11.3mn
tourists. The top two source markets, Germany and
Italy, both recorded falls in the number of arrivals,
with German visitors
down slightly on an annual basis, but Italian arrivals were down a sizeable 7%
y-oy.
Indeed, of the top five source markets, only Slovenia recorded
positive growth in visitors, up 3% y-o-y,
while Austria and the Czech
Republic recorded declines in arrivals of 3% and 7% y-o-y respectively.
After strong growth in the previous two years, growth in arrivals from Japan
and Australia remained
buoyant in 2008. Arrivals from the US, however,
were noticeably weak, down 13% y-o-y. Croatia also
continued to attract
more foreign visitors from Central and Eastern Europe, with buoyant growth
rates in
arrivals from Romania, Poland and Bulgaria. Cruise ship tourism,
meanwhile, recorded a considerable
35% y-o-y increase in passenger numbers
to about 940,000.
Hospitality
The hospitality sector recorded a
particularly weak performance in 2008, compared with a year earlier.
The
number of tourist nights totalled just over 57mn (domestic and foreign
tourists), up just 2% y-o-y,
with the number of foreign tourist nights up
by around the same amount to 50.6mn (just under 89% of the
total). The
average number of nights per foreign tourist arrival increased slightly
compared with a year
earlier to 5.4 nights. Domestic tourist nights
increased by a mere 1% annually to about 6.5mn. Out of the
five main
source markets, only Germany and Slovenia recorded positive (but marginal)
growth y-o-y in
tourist nights in 2008, equivalent to 1% and 2% y-o-y
respectively. The number of tourist nights by
arrivals from the UK and the
US in 2008 were down 4% and a significant 12% y-o-y respectively
Industry
Forecast Scenario
The most recent data shows growth in foreign tourist
arrivals of 10% y-o-y in the month of January 2009,
but this is down
sharply compared with 17% y-o-y growth recorded in the same month in 2008. In
line
with the overall slowdown in growth in foreign tourist arrivals
recently, BMI predicts the number of
visitors will continue to fall this
year (revised down further this quarter to -5% y-o-y) but modest recovery
in 2010. The forecasts are underpinned by the deteriorating economic
conditions in major source markets
- particularly the eurozone - with
arrivals from Germany and Italy anticipated to fall relatively sharply in
2009.
Air Passenger Traffic
As reflected in the sharp slowdown in
foreign tourism arrivals, international passenger air traffic declined
1.2% on an annual basis in 2008 to approximately 1.78mn. As the downturn in
the tourism sector
continues to bite, we anticipate further negative
growth in international passenger numbers in 2009.
Indeed, the most recent
data from Zagreb Airport - the main international airport in Croatia and
the
primary hub for the Croatian flag carrier Croatia Airlines - show
total passenger numbers fell almost 5%
y-o-y in Q109.
| 
View Cart
