Abstract
Tourism Overview
BMI estimates that foreign visitor arrivals to the Czech
Republic in 2008 declined marginally. This is
primarily based on
hospitality sector data which show that foreign guest arrivals fell 0.4%
year-on-year
(y-o-y) in 2008. Indeed, the number of tourists in the
hospitality sector from Germany - the key source
market for the Czech
Republic - declined nearly 5% compared with a year earlier. Moreover,
following
weakness in the hospitality sector in Q308, data for Q408 add to
the gloomy picture.
Hospitality
Data for 2008 records a 3.8% y-o-y
fall in the total (domestic and foreign) number of overnight stays at
collective accommodation establishments. Overnight stays by foreign guests
dropped by 3% y-o-y. Data
for Q408 also show increasing weakness in the
hospitality sector for both foreign and domestic tourism.
The number of
overnight stays totalled 7.2mn in the fourth quarter, which was 8.2% lower
y-o-y. Of these
overnight stays, foreign tourism nights were down a
sizeable 7.5% compared with the same period in
2007, while domestic
residents recorded a further marked fall of 9.2% y-o-y. A total of 2.6mn
guests were
recorded at collective accommodation establishments in Q408,
down 5.4% on Q407, with a total of 1.4mn
foreign and 1.2mn domestic guests
(down 6.3% and 4.2% y-o-y respectively). With regard to major
source
markets in 2008, the number of German guests fell nearly 5% y-o-y (down 2%
y-o-y in Q408).
Arrivals from the UK recorded even more significant falls,
with the number of guests down over 14% yo-
y (falling some 23% y-o-y in
the final quarter of 2008). The number of Russian guests, meanwhile, rose
a strong 30% y-o-y last year, while Polish guests were also up a favourable
25% y-o-y.
Forecast Scenario
In 2009, we foresee a relatively large
annual decline of 8% in the number of foreign visitor arrivals. This
is
mainly due to severe economic conditions in key source markets - the eurozone
(especially Germany)
and the UK. The German economy is now forecast to
contract by 4.6% in 2009. Largely due to the
Germany downgrade, the
eurozone bloc as a whole is forecast to contract by 3.6% this year. Slight
recovery of 0.1% in economic growth in the eurozone is forecast in 2010.
Although growth in arrivals is
anticipated to pick-up slightly next year,
BMI maintains only a modest outlook for foreign visitors over
the
remainder of the forecast period to 2013.
Prague Ruzyne International
Airport
As expected, there was a sharp slowdown in growth of total
passenger traffic at Prague Ruzyne
International Airport in 2008.
Passenger numbers increased just 1.6% y-o-y to around 12.6mn (after
7.4%
y-o-y growth in 2007), with international traffic up nearly 1.5% y-o-y to
almost 12.5mn, while
domestic passengers increased about 12% compared with
2007. Indicating the scale of the downturn, in
November and December 2008,
total passenger numbers fell some 15% and 14% y-o-y respectively.
During
2008, low-cost airlines transported 6.3% more passengers y-o-y to just under
3.0mn, while their
share of the airport' s overall operations was over 23%
(up slightly on a year earlier). Latest figures for the
first two months
of 2009 show further sharp falls in total passenger traffic at Prague Ruzyne
Airport,
down more than 17% compared with the corresponding period of the
previous year.
Czech Airlines
Unaudited financial results show Czech
Airlines (CSA) recorded a profit before tax of CZK500mn
(US$29.3mn) in
2008, an improvement of CZK389mn on a year earlier. CSA carried more than
5.6mn
passengers, up about 2.4% y-o-y, although declines in traffic y-o-y
were recorded in the last few months
of 2008. In March 2009, the Czech
Finance Ministry closed the first round of tendering for CSA, with
four
preliminary bids received from Air France-KLM, Aeroflot, private equity firm
Odien and a
consortium comprising Czech Unimex Group and Travel Service.
According to the ministry, the winner
should be known by the end of
September 2009 at the latest.
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