Abstract
For BMI' s Q309 Iran Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Report, we expect a 9.0%
compound annual growth
rate (CAGR) for the total pharmaceutical market,
meaning an increase in total value from US$2.27bn in
2008 to US$3.50bn by
2013. We believe the main drivers for growth will include a growing
population, a
rise in domestic drug manufacturing, and the greater burden
of disease imposed by respiratory illnesses.
Total healthcare spending is
expected to rise from US$25.2bn in 2008, to US$41.8bn by 2013, reflecting
the increasing demand on medical services.
On the regulatory front, Iran
is still failing to attract considerable multinational interest. While the
R&D
in the country is accelerating, with governmental backing and
promotion in boosting the domestic drug
sector, we note that patent and
intellectual property protection is still a strong deterrent. Although the
US
Trade Representative (USTR) Special 301 Report has not highlighted
Iran, we note that this is due to the
lack of international collaboration
between Iran and developed countries.
We believe that the potential for
Iran' s drug market to grow is hindered by its poor regulatory
environment,
with our Business Environment Rankings for IP protection only scoring a meagre
two out
of 10, with approvals a marginally higher score of three. Among
the Middle East region, Iran' s IP
environment is poor, with Kuwait
attaining five, and Egypt also a two. BMI highlights that although the
lack of adequate patent protection is an ongoing issue within the Middle East,
Iran' s economic isolation
will continue to hinder any real development in
this arena.
It is highly unlikely that Iran will make any significant
positive advances on this front in the medium
term. While the drive to
promote domestic drug production will establish a stronger domestic
pharmaceutical sector, we caution that even without import restrictions the
lack of transparent legislation
on patent laws will add another layer of
difficulties for foreign drugmakers expanding operations within
the Middle
East.
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