Abstract
BMI has revised its extended forecast for Jordan' s pharmaceutical and
healthcare market for our Q309
report. We expect the total drug market to
grow from US$370mn in 2008 to US$519mn by 2013,
representing a compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.01%. The main drivers for growth include
the
continuing high volume medicine export activity, generated by Jordan' s
domestic drug manufacturers.
Additionally, the epidemiological profile of
Jordan indicates an increasing burden of obesity and
diabetes-related
disorders, which will drive spending in overall healthcare.
According to
the Jordanian Association of Pharmaceutical Manufactures (JAPM) drug exports
in 2007
reached JOD460mn (US$647mn), rising to JOD500mn (US$704mn) by
2008; however, it also revealed
that the global economic downturn will
reduce demand for Jordanian medicines. BMI' s forecast indicates
drug
exports will rise in Jordan from a more moderate US$531mn in 2008 to US$1.32bn
by 2013,
representing a 20.0% CAGR. In line with the JAPM, we agree that
the Jordanian pharmaceutical export
industry is unlikely to reach its 2011
JOD1bn target.
Jordan is the most popular destination for medical tourists
within the Arab world and this sector has been
steadily growing since
2006. The country' s relatively cheap and high quality health services have
been
attracting patients from other Middle Eastern and North African
countries including Yemen, Algeria,
Iraq, Palestine and Sudan. We believe
that boosting investment in this sector can open new markets with
tourists
from the US and Europe seeking lower cost medical procedures.
In February
2009 Jordan held an international medical tourism congress with
representatives from the
Private Hospital Association (PHA) and the US
Agency for International Development (USAID). The
meeting aimed to develop
new strategies to improve and expand the capacity of the private health
sector
while also seeking opportunities for growth from other markets.
Regulatory policies are also being
implemented to gain international
quality accreditation to provide standardised protocols for global
patients.
Jordan' s current medical tourism sector revenues are estimated
to reach US$650mn by the end of 2009
and the country is keen to reach its
ambitious target of US$1bn by 2012. We believe this is unlikely in
light
of the early stages of US and international interest and therefore expect a
more modest outcome by
this date. The Middle Eastern country has a
relatively stable political environment with highly-qualified
Arab
doctors. In addition, its good relations with other neighbouring nations have
ensured a sizable Arab
patient interest for Jordanian medical expertise,
in addition to an excellent reputation. According to
details from a health
tourism conference in Jordan during 2007, the private sector had 33.6% of the
total
hospital beds in the country, compared to 38.3% for the Ministry of
Health-funded sector. In-patients
contributed to over 70% of total private
care costs, suggesting that invasive procedures that are expensive
in
other regions, including cardiovascular, joint replacements and cosmetic or
corrective surgery, are the
main reasons for choosing Jordanian healthcare
services.
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