Abstract
The latest Pakistan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will
account for just 1.38% of
Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while
providing 0.86% of its supply. Asia Pacific regional oil
use of 21.40mn
barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.87mn b/d in 2008. It
should average
25.79mn b/d in 2009, then rise to around 29.12mn b/d by
2013. Regional oil production was just under
8.41mn b/d in 2001, and
averaged an estimated 8.41mn b/d in 2008. It is set to increase to 8.74mn b/d
by
2013.
In terms of natural gas, in 2008 the region consumed an
estimated 440bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand
of 551bcm is targeted for
2013. Production of an estimated 364bcm in 2008 should reach 486bcm in
2013, but implies net imports easing from an estimated 76bcm per annum in 2008
to 65bcm in 2013. This
is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major
exporters. Pakistan' s share of gas consumption in
2008 was an estimated
7.09%, while its share of production is put at 8.58%. By 2013, its share of
gas
consumption is forecast to be 7.13%, with the country accounting for
7.83% of supply.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price
in Q109 was an estimated US$45.78 per barrel
(bbl), down 13% from the
US$52.51/bbl recorded during the previous three months. During the second
quarter, there has been little change to our view of oil market developments.
BMI is forecasting an
average OPEC basket price of US$51.30/bbl, with the
March gains being retained in April, before further
recovery to a possible
US$57.00 is seen by June. For 2009, we are still assuming an average OPEC
basket
price of US$52.00/bbl (-45% year-on-year). The BMI full year
forecast implies Brent crude at US$53.73,
WTI averaging US$54.90/bbl and
Urals at US$52.66 for 2009.
For the whole of 2009, the BMI assumption for
gasoline is an average US$56.89/bbl, with the price
peaking at a forecast
monthly average of US$64.75 in December 2009. The overall y-o-y fall in
2009
gasoline prices is put at 44.1%. For gasoil in 2009, the BMI forecast
is for an average price of
US$69.35/bbl, assuming a monthly high of
US$94.48/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a
42.8% fall
from the 2008 level. The monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range
from US$53.75 in
February to US$96.76/bbl in December, proving an annual
level of US$71.78/bbl. This compares with
US$124.95/bbl in 2008.
Pakistan' s real GDP growth for 2009 is forecast by BMI at 2.5%, down from 5.8%
in 2008. In 2010,
growth is put at 3.5%, followed by 4.3% in 2011, and
4.8% in 2012/2013. Several state-controlled oil and
gas companies are in
the throes of privatisation and already work with international oil companies
(IOCs)
in the upstream segment. We foresee oil and gas liquids production
of no more than 75,000b/d by 2013,
with the country also able to pump an
estimated 75,000b/d in 2009. Consumption beyond 2009 is forecast
to
increase by around 3.5% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 401,000b/d by
the end of the forecast
period. The import requirement would therefore be
approximately 326,000b/d by 2013. Gas demand is set
to rise from an
estimated 31.2bcm in 2008 to 39.2bcm by 2013, requiring imports of at least
1.2bcm.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting a decrease in Pakistan
oil production of 19.1%, with crude
volumes falling steadily to 55,000b/d
in 2018. Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to increase
by
27.1%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the
period and the
country using 468,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is
expected to rise from around 31.2bcm in 2008 to a
possible 45.0bcm by
2017/2018. With demand growth of 60.5%, this requires imports rising to
5.1bcm
by the end of the forecast period. Details of BMI' s 10-year
forecasts can be found in the appendix to this
report, which provides
global, regional and country-specific projections.
Pakistan now ranks
fourth, ahead of Malaysia, in BMI' s updated Upstream Business Environment
rating,
reflecting a reasonable resource position, better-than-average
output growth outlook and falling state
involvement. The country sits five
points ahead of China, and may not be able to keep it at bay over the
longer term. Pakistan now ranks 10th, behind Vietnam and the Philippines, in
BMI' s Downstream
Business Environment rating, reflecting its refinery
capacity expansion plans, average oil and gas demand
growth outlook and
low level of retail site intensity.
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