Abstract
The latest Philippines Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country
will account for 1.17% of
Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while
providing 0.80% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use
of 21.40mn
barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.87mn b/d in 2008. It
should average
25.79mn b/d in 2009, and then rise to around 29.12mn b/d by
2013. Regional oil production was just
under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and
averaged an estimated 8.41mn b/d in 2008. It is set to increase to 8.74mn
b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, in 2008 the region consumed an
estimated 440bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand
of 551bcm is targeted for
2013. Production of an estimated 364bcm in 2008 should reach 486bcm in
2013, but implies net imports easing from an estimated 76bcm per annum in 2008
to 65bcm in 2013. This
is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major
exporters. The Philippines' estimated share of gas
consumption in 2008 was
0.77%, while its share of production is put at 0.93%. By 2013, its share of
gas
consumption is forecast to be 0.93%, with the country accounting for
1.05% of supply.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price
in Q109 was an estimated US$45.78 per barrel
(bbl), down 13% from the
US$52.51/bbl recorded during the previous three months. During the second
quarter, there has been little change to our view of oil market developments.
BMI is forecasting an
average OPEC basket price of US$51.30/bbl, with the
March gains being retained in April, before further
recovery to a possible
US$57.00 is seen by June. For 2009, we are still assuming an average OPEC
basket
price of US$52.00/bbl (-45% year-on-year). The BMI full-year
forecast implies Brent crude at US$53.73,
WTI averaging US$54.90/bbl and
Urals at US$52.66 for 2009.
For the whole of 2009, the BMI assumption for
gasoline is an average US$56.89/bbl, with the price
peaking at a forecast
monthly average of US$64.75 in December 2009. The overall y-o-y fall in
2009
gasoline prices is put at 44.1%. For gasoil in 2009, the BMI forecast
is for an average price of
US$69.35/bbl, assuming a monthly high of
US$94.48/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a
42.8% fall
from the 2008 level. The monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range
from US$53.75 in
February to US$96.76/bbl in December, proving an annual
level of US$71.78/bbl. This compares with
US$124.95/bbl in 2008.
The
Philippines' real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 2.8% for 2009, down from
4.6% in 2008. We are
assuming 3.4% growth in 2010, 4.7% in 2011, followed
by 4.4% in 2012, and 4.2% in 2013. There is
international oil company
(IOC) and national involvement in domestic upstream activities, leading to
substantial gas output growth and some modest liquids expansion. We are
assuming oil and gas liquids
production of no more than 70,000b/d by
2012/2013, with the country pumping an estimated 60,000b/d in
2009. Beyond
2009, consumption is forecast to increase by up to 3% per annum to 2013,
implying endThe
period demand of 339,000b/d. The import requirement would
therefore be about 269,000b/d by 2013. Gas
demand is forecast to rise from
an estimated 3.4bcm in 2008 to 5.1bcm by 2013, with imports required
beyond the end of the forecast period.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are
forecasting a reduction in Philippines oil production of 5.0%, with crude
volumes peaking at 70,000b/d in 2012/2013 before falling steadily to 54,000b/d
in 2018. Oil consumption
between 2008 and 2018 is set to increase by
26.8%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.5% per annum
towards the end of
the period and the country using 38,6000b/d by 2018. Gas production is
expected to
rise from around 3.4bcm in 2008 to a possible 7.0bcm by
2017/2018. With demand growth of 132.4%,
this requires up to 1bcm of
imports. Details of BMI' s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix
to
this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific
projections.
The Philippines now ranks sixth in BMI' s updated Upstream
Business Environment rating, reflecting a
reasonable resource position and
a better-than-average output growth outlook. The country sits just
behind
Malaysia. The country now ranks equal eighth with Vietnam in our Downstream
Business
Environment rating, reflecting its modest refinery capacity
expansion plans, reasonable oil and gas
demand growth outlook and
relatively low level of retail site intensity.
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