Abstract
Tourism Overview
Complete data for 2008 shows foreign visitor arrivals
totalled nearly 8.9mn, a very healthy increase of
about 15% year-on-year
(y-o-y), but somewhat lower than in the previous year. Moreover, a
downward
trend in growth was evident in the latter part of the year.
Almost 63% of visitor arrivals were from the EU
member states. Of the
latter, Hungary accounted for the largest proportion of arrivals (35% of the
total),
followed by Bulgaria (20%), Germany (9.4%), Italy (7.8%) and
Poland (5%). Although latest data are for
just one month, figures for
January 2009 suggest that a sharp weakening in the number of foreign
visitors
is on the cards, with the number of arrivals down almost 8%
compared with the same month in 2008.
Hospitality
Official figures for
2008 represent a poor performance for the hospitality sector, particularly for
foreign
visitors. Data shows that tourism nights in all establishments
that offered accommodation amounted to
20.7mn (foreign and domestic
tourists), up just 0.6% compared with a year earlier. Foreign tourists
though recorded a 6.3% y-o-y decline in overnight stays to about 3.4mn (16.2%
of the total). At the same
time, foreign visitor arrivals in collective
accommodation establishments declined by 5.5% y-o-y to
around 1.5mn
(nearly 21% of total arrivals). Hotel occupancy rates were just over 41%,
which was
slightly weaker than in 2007. The most recent data are for
January 2009 and show a significant
deterioration in the hospitality
sector, with tourism nights (foreign and domestic tourists) in all
accommodation establishments down 16% y-o-y, of which foreign tourist nights
fell nearly 22%
compared with January 2008. Over the same period, foreign
visitor arrivals in collective accommodation
establishments declined more
than 18% y-o-y.
Forecast Scenario
Having highlighted that the risks
were on the downside, BMI now expects a much weaker scenario for
foreign
visitor arrivals in 2009 and we now anticipate a decline of at least 10%
y-o-y. This rests on recent
gloomy data for arrivals in December and
January, and further downward revisions to real GDP growth in
the eurozone
- the major source of arrivals in Romania - along with our revised forecast of
a deeper
recession in Hungary in 2009 and only modest recovery beyond
2011. A slight pick up in foreign visitor
arrivals, though, is anticipated
next year.
Tarom
In 2008, for the national flag carrier, Tarom,
reported operating revenue of US$404mn, up 10% y-o-y,
but overall it
recorded a loss of US$28mn (following a profit in 2007), chiefly due to
increased fuel costs.
The airline also recorded a significant slowdown in
passenger growth, up a modest 5% y-o-y to about
1.8mn (after 32% y-o-y
growth in 2007). Moreover, in November and December 2008, Tarom
experienced relatively sharp falls in passenger traffic y-o-y.
Wizz
Air
Hungarian low-cost carrier Wizz Air aims to carry 1.7mn passengers to
an from Romania in 2009 and
become the market leader on the Romanian
low-cost market this summer. This is after carrying close to
900,000
passengers to and from Romania in 2008, a substantial increase of 148%
y-o-y.
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