Abstract
The new Argentina Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will
account for 9.76% of Latin
American regional power generation by 2013.
BMI’s Latin America power generation estimate for 2007
is 1,088
terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 3.5% over the previous year.
We are
forecasting growth in regional generation to 1,417TWh by 2013,
representing a rise of 30.2%.
Latin American thermal power generation in
2007 is estimated by BMI at 419TWh, accounting for 38.5%
of the total
electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 579TWh, implying
30.3% growth,
increasing the market share of thermal generation to 38.0%
– in spite of environmental concerns that
should be promoting
renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Argentina’s thermal
generation in
2007 was 75.3TWh, or 18.0% of the regional total. By 2013,
the country is expected to account for 14.4%
of thermal generation.
For Argentina, gas was the dominant fuel in 2007, accounting for 53.8% of
primary energy demand
(PED), followed by oil at 31.9%, hydro at 11.6%,
coal at 0.5% and nuclear at 2.2%. Regional energy
demand is forecast to
reach 761mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 26.5%
growth.
Argentina’s 2007 market share of 12.25% is set to fall to
11.06% during the period. The country’s
7.1TWh of nuclear demand in
2007 is forecast to reach 9.5TWh by 2013, with its share of the regional
nuclear market falling from 23.7% to 22.4% over the period.
Argentina is
now ranked equal third with Venezuela, in BMI’s updated Power Business
Environment
rating, thanks to its market size and low energy import
dependency. The power sector is competitive, with
more progress towards
privatisation than seen in most other countries. The regulatory environment
has
deteriorated in the last few years, thanks to government intervention
in energy pricing, but remains more
attractive than in other parts of the
region. Chile is now only two points ahead, but is unlikely to be
caught
over the medium term.
BMI is now forecasting Argentinean real GDP growth
averaging 2.77% per annum between 2007 and
2013, with the 2008 forecast
being 6.00%. Population is expected to expand from 39.5mn to 42.0mn over
the period, with GDP per capita forecast to increase significantly (by 110%).
Electricity consumption per
capita is, however, expected to slip slightly
during the forecast period. The country’s power consumption
is
expected to increase from an estimated 91.4TWh in 2007 to 94.0TWh by the end
of the forecast period,
providing theoretical export potential rising from
an estimated 29TWh in 2007 to 44TWh in 2013,
assuming 2.4% annual growth
in electricity generation.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an
increase in Argentinean electricity generation of 29.5%,
which is the
lowest for the Latin America region. This equates to 13.1% in the 2013-2018
period, down
from 14.4% in 2007-2013. PED growth is set to fall from 14.3%
in 2007-2013 to 9.6% in 2013-2018,
representing 25.2% for the entire
forecast period. An increase of 37.9% in hydro-power use during 2007-
2018
is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast
to rise by 21.4%
between 2007 and 2018, with nuclear consumption up by
69.6%. More details of the longer-term BMI
power forecasts can be found at
the end of this report.
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