Abstract
The new Argentina Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will
account for 9.9% of Latin
American regional power generation by 2013.
BMI’s Latin America power generation estimate for 2008
is 1,125
terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 3.4% over the previous year.
We are
forecasting growth in regional generation to 1,367TWh by 2013,
representing a rise of 21.5%.
Latin American thermal power generation in
2008 is estimated by BMI at 438TWh, accounting for 38.9%
of the total
electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 561TWh, implying
28.1% growth,
increasing the market share of thermal generation to 41.0%
– in spite of environmental concerns that
should be promoting
renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Argentina’s thermal
generation in
2008 was an estimated 75.1TWh, or 17.2% of the regional
total. By 2013, the country is expected to
account for 15.2% of thermal
generation.
For Argentina, gas was the dominant fuel in 2007, accounting
for 53.8% of primary energy demand
(PED), followed by oil at 31.9%, hydro
at 11.6%, coal at 0.5% and nuclear at 2.2%. Regional energy
demand is
forecast to reach 744mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing
18.9% growth.
Argentina’s estimated 2008 market share of 12.1% is
set to fall to 11.2% during the period. The country’s
estimated
7.1TWh of nuclear demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 8.0TWh by 2013, with its
share of the
regional nuclear market falling from 23.2% to 20.5% over the
period.
Argentina is now ranked outright third in BMI’s updated
Power Business Environment rating, having
moved well ahead of Venezuela
this quarter thanks to its market size and low energy import dependency.
The power sector is competitive, with more progress towards privatisation than
seen in most other
countries. The regulatory environment has deteriorated
in the last few years, thanks to government
intervention in energy
pricing, but remains more attractive than in other parts of the region.
Colombia is
now only two points ahead, but is unlikely to be caught over
the medium term.
BMI is now forecasting Argentinean real GDP growth
averaging 1.7% per annum between 2008 and
2013, with the 2009 forecast
being a decline of 1.0%. Population is expected to expand from 39.9mn to
42.0mn over the period, with GDP per capita forecast to increase significantly
(by 74.7%). Electricity
consumption per capita is, however, expected to
slip 3.0% during the forecast period. The country’s
power
consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 104.7TWh in 2008 to
106.9TWh by the end
of the forecast period, providing theoretical export
potential rising from an estimated 16TWh in 2008 to
28TWh in 2013,
assuming 1.8% annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2007 and
2018, we are forecasting an increase in Argentinean electricity generation of
27.4%,
which is the lowest for the Latin America region. This equates to
14.3% in the 2013-2018 period, up from
11.3% in 2008-2013. PED growth is
set to fall from 10.2% in 2008-2013 to 9.6% in 2013-2018,
representing
23.7% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 26.2% in hydro-power use
during 2007-
2018 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power
generation is forecast to rise by 24.3%
between 2007 and 2018, with
nuclear consumption up by 69.6%. More details of the longer-term BMI
power
forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
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