Abstract
In BMI’s Q209 Business Environment Rating for the 17 countries of the
MEA region, Bahrain improved
its position to fourth, from equal sixth.
While the country’s overall score is negatively impacted by the
small population, the low-risk economic and political climates and strong
pharmaceutical-specific
regulatory framework represent major positives for
foreign drugmakers, especially given the preference
for patented and
branded prescription drugs, a relatively generous reimbursement system and
the
unchallenging distribution network. The population is also growing
relatively quickly, which should help
to boost future returns, Overall, we
expect total drug market spending to increase from US$73.2mn in
2008 to
US$97.6mn by 2013, implying a steady compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
just over 5.9%.
The demand for healthcare services is expected to increase
considerably, especially as chronic and longterm
diseases have come to
represent most of the mortality and morbidity burden. For example,
according
to a February 2009 TradeArabia article, the number of newborn
children with type I (insulin-dependent)
diabetes rose almost tripled
between 1993 and 2008. Similarly, around 26% of Bahraini population
presently suffers from hypertension, while asthma has also emerged as a
pressing health concern due to
worsening air quality.
On a positive
note, in March 2009 the Bahraini health minister announced that the number of
patients
presenting with sickle cell anaemia and thalassemia fell as a
result of the government' s pre-marriage
screening programmes and improved
treatment of sufferers. The long-term health policy instilled by the
state
not only includes designated hospital units for sickle cell anaemic children,
but also plans to finance
additional facilities to treat adults. BMI
believes that Bahrain' s successful strategy for preventing
congenital
diseases will be attractive to multinational firms involved in genetic
sequencing and anaemic
disease management.
On an economic front, the
news is similarly encouraging. While there are substantial macroeconomic
risks in 2009 – but assuming an oil price bounce in the second half of
the year – Bahrain should continue
to record positive real growth
rates. Nevertheless, we have revised down our forecasts for Bahraini
growth to 3.5% in 2009 from our previous projection of 4.3%. The changes were
made on the premise
that the services-oriented economies are more exposed
to global consumer demand and liquidity
shortages, and will therefore be
affected to a larger degree. Against this backdrop, we are forecasting
consumer spending growth of 3.0% for 2009 and 2010, rising to 4.0% in
2011-2012 and then 5.0% in
2013. This should also work towards supporting
the development of the over-the-counter (OTC)
medicines market, from a
currently low base of US$3.7mn. OTCs will also be boosted by the recent
Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC)-wide proposals to introduce harmonised
traditional and alternative medicines
legislation, put forward in response
to the increase in the use of herbal treatments.
| 
View Cart
