Abstract
The new Brazil Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will by 2013
account for 39.7% of
Latin America regional power generation. BMI’s
Latin America power generation estimate for 2008 is
1,125 terawatt hours
(TWh), representing an increase of 3.4% over the previous year. We are
forecasting
growth in regional generation to 1,367TWh by 2013,
representing a rise of 21.5%.
Latin American thermal power generation in
2008 is estimated by BMI at 438TWh, accounting for 38.9%
of the total
electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 561TWh, implying
28.1% growth,
increasing the market share of thermal generation to 41.0%
– in spite of environmental concerns that
should be promoting
renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Brazil’s thermal
generation in
2008 was an estimated 57.4TWh, or 13.1% of the regional
total. By 2013, the country is expected to
account for 14.5% of thermal
generation.
For Brazil, oil was in 2007 the dominant fuel, accounting for
44.5% of primary energy demand (PED),
followed by hydro at 38.8%, gas at
9.1%, coal at 6.3% and nuclear at 1.3%. Regional energy demand is
forecast
to reach 744mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 18.9%
growth. Brazil’s
estimated 2008 market share of 36.5% is set to
reach 36.7% by 2013. The country’s estimated 13TWh of
nuclear demand
in 2008 is forecast to reach 18TWh by 2013, with its share of the regional
nuclear market
rising from 42.5% to 46.2%.
Brazil is still ranked
first, well above nearest rival Colombia, in BMI’s updated Power
Business
Environment rating, thanks to its vast market size and excellent
growth prospects. It scores highest in the
region for installed generating
capacity, electricity generation, PED and its use of renewables (largely
hydro-power). Certain country risk factors offset some of the industry
strength, but the country seems
destined to remain at the head of the
table for the foreseeable future.
BMI is now forecasting real GDP growth
averaging 2.8% per annum between 2008 and 2013, with the
2009 forecast
being a decline of 0.6%. Population is expected to expand from 192mn to 204mn
over the
period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per
capita forecast to increase significantly (by
40% and 10%, respectively).
The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an
estimated
451TWh in 2008 to 528TWh by the end of the forecast period,
providing theoretical export potential that
is cancelled out largely by
transmission losses. BMI is assuming 3.8% annual growth in electricity
generation.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in
Brazilian electricity generation of 56.7%,
which is above average for the
Latin America region. This equates to 25.2% in the 2013-2018 period, up
from 18.5% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to rise from 19.3% in 2008-2013 to
21.1%, representing
52.4% for the entire forecast period. An increase of
45.4% in hydro-power use during 2007-2018 is one
key element of generation
growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 157.3% between
2007
and 2018, with nuclear consumption up by 61.8%. More details of the
longer-term BMI power forecasts
can be found in the Appendix of this
report.
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