Table of Contents
Executive Summary — 7
SWOT
Analysis — 9
Bulgaria Political
SWOT — 9
Bulgaria Economic SWOT — 10
Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT — 11
Bulgarian Energy
Market Overview — 12
Global Oil Market
Outlook — 15
Storing Up Trouble — 15
Revised Forecasts — 17
Global Oil Market
Review — 19
One-Way Traffic — 19
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) — 22
12-Month
Demand Outlook — 22
Table: Global Oil Production
(000b/d) — 23
12-Month Supply
Outlook — 24
Longer-Term Supply And
Demand — 24
Oil Price Assumptions — 25
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 — 26
Table: Oil
Price Forecasts — 26
Global Oil Products Price
Outlook — 27
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009
(US$/bbl) — 30
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts
(US$/bbl) — 31
Global Oil Products Market
Review — 32
Regional Energy Market
Overview — 37
Oil Supply And
Demand — 37
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption
(000b/d) — 38
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production
(000b/d) — 39
Oil: Downstream — 40
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity
(000b/d) — 40
Gas Supply And
Demand — 41
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption
(bcm) — 41
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production
(bcm) — 42
Liquefied Natural Gas — 43
Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports)
(bcm) — 43
Business Environment
Ranking — 44
Central/Eastern Europe
Region — 44
Composite Scores — 44
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating — 45
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment
Rating — 46
Upstream Scores — 46
Downstream Scores — 47
Bulgaria Upstream Rating –
Overview — 47
Bulgaria Upstream Rating – Potential
Returns — 47
Bulgaria Upstream Rating – Risks to
Potential Returns — 47
Bulgaria Downstream Rating –
Overview — 48
Bulgaria Downstream Rating – Potential
Returns — 48
Bulgaria Downstream Rating – Risks to
Potential Returns — 48
Business
Environment — 49
Legal Framework — 49
Infrastructure — 50
Labour Force — 51
Foreign Investment Policy — 52
Tax
Regime — 53
Industry Forecast
Scenario — 55
Oil and Gas
Reserves — 55
Oil Supply and
Demand — 55
Gas Supply and Demand — 55
Refining and Oil Products Trade — 57
Revenues/Import
Costs — 58
Table: Bulgaria Oil & Gas – Historical
Data & Forecasts — 59
Other
Energy — 60
Table: Bulgaria Other Energy –
Historical Data & Forecasts — 60
Key Risks To BMI’s
Forecast Scenario — 61
Long-Term Oil & Gas
Outlook — 61
Macroeconomic
Outlook — 62
Table: Bulgaria - Economic
Activity,2006-2013 — 65
Competitive
Landscape — 66
Executive Summary — 66
Table: Key Players Bulgarian Oil & Gas Sector — 67
Overview/State Role — 67
Table: Key Upstream
Players — 69
Table: Key Downstream
Players — 69
Company Monitor — 70
Lukoil Neftekhim — 70
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
plc — 73
Petrol AD — 75
OMV
Bulgaria — 77
Shell Bulgaria — 79
Eko-Elda Bulgaria — 81
Melrose
Resources — 83
Anschutz/Ramco –
Summary — 86
Direct Petroleum Exploration –
Summary — 86
JKX Oil & Gas/Aurelian Oil & Gas –
Summary — 86
Opet – Summary — 86
Prista – Summary — 87
Glossary of
Terms — 88
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised
Methodology — 89
Introduction — 89
Ratings Overview — 89
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business
Environment Ratings: Structure — 90
Indicators — 91
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment
Upstream Ratings: Methodology — 91
Table: BMI Oil & Gas
Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology — 92
Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts — 94
Global Oil
Demand — 94
Table: Global Oil Demand
(000b/d) — 94
Table: Global Oil Production
(000b/d) — 95
Global Oil Supply — 95
Global Gas Demand — 96
Table: Global Gas Demand
(bcm) — 96
Global Gas Supply — 96
Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) — 97
Regional Oil
Demand — 98
Table: CEE Oil Consumption
(000b/d) — 98
Regional Oil Supply — 99
Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d) — 99
Regional Refining
Capacity — 100
Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity
(000b/d) — 100
Regional Gas
Demand — 101
Table: CEE Gas Consumption
(bcm) — 101
Regional Gas Supply — 102
Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm) — 102
Bulgaria Country
Overview — 102
Methodology & Risks To
Forecasts — 103
BMI Forecast
Modelling — 104
How we generate our industry
forecasts — 104
Energy Industry — 105
Cross checks — 105
Sources — 105
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