Abstract
Transportadora de Gas del Interior (TGI), a subsidiary of Empresa de
Energía de Bogotá (EEB),
said it would invest US$600mn in gas
pipeline expansion. The company said it would increase capacity
on the
Ballena-Barrancabermeja pipeline from 190mn cubic feet/day (cfd) in 2008 to
260mn cfd by 2010.
This would require US$150mn for the installation of
three new compression stations and the upgrade of
four old ones. A further
US$450mn would be invested to expand the Cusiana-Vasconia-Cali pipeline,
adding an extra 180mn cfd-worth of capacity over two stages. Earlier, EEB
president Astrid Martínez was
reported as saying that the country
needed to expand the gas transport capacity of the networks
connecting its
main gas producing fields to the interior of the country. However, she noted
that a study by
local government agencies and gas operators had indicated
that Colombia had enough gas to meet
foreseeable national demand up to and
beyond 2017. In our latest Colombia Freight Transport Report,
BMI
concludes that pipeline throughput (both oil and gas) will grow by an annual
average of 4.2% over
the next five years.
Various factors support this
prediction. Bearing in mind the expected global slowdown in 2009, the
economy will grow by an annual average of 3.9% in 2009-2013, somewhat slower
than the preceding
five-year period (an average of 5.7%). At the same
time, however, domestic oil and gas demand will
remain strong, and there
are growing opportunities for Colombia to act as a transit corridor,
particularly
for Venezuelan hydrocarbon exports out to the Pacific, on
their way to China and other markets.
Lawlessness and guerrilla
insurgencies, which have targeted pipelines, will continue to be a factor, but
the
overall security situation is expected to improve
Overall
prospects for the freight sector are relatively encouraging. We are expecting
freight turnover to
grow by an average of 5.2% during 2009-2013,
significantly ahead of the economy’s general growth rate.
We believe
President Uribe’s emphasis on restoring a strong central government
based on the rule of law
is gradually improving the operating environment
and slowly encouraging a pick-up in investment levels.
This implies a
scenario in which some of Colombia’s ageing transport infrastructure
will gradually be
modernised and upgraded and some of the country’s
‘no-go’ rebel areas will be slowly brought back to
normality
with the re-establishment of transport links. We do not, however, see the
country’s deep-rooted
problems of social and political violence
coming to an early end − in that sense there are few ‘quick
wins’
to be had. Airfreight traffic growth will average 5.8% during
the 5-year forecast period, with rail traffic at
6.7%. Road freight will
also grow by an average of 6.7%, inland waterways at 4.2%, pipeline
throughput
also at 4.2% and maritime freight at 3.4%.
Overall,
Colombia scores 57.4 out of a possible maximum of 100.0 in our freight
transport business
environment matrix. The country scores relatively well
on freight transport growth, long-term economic
risk and the competitive
environment. Areas of relative weakness include long-term political risk
(largely
a reflection of the poor security situation as a result of
long-running guerrilla insurgencies), patchy
infrastructure growth and
aspects of the regulatory environment. The transport intensity index, a
measure
of the dynamism of foreign trade, has also been relatively
low.
According to our latest estimates, the total value of transport and
communications GDP will rise to
US$33.9bn in nominal terms by 2013,
representing 9.0% of Colombia’s GDP. The transport and
communications sector employed an estimated 1.23mn people, or 6.5% of the
labour force, in 2008. We
see that figure rising to 1.34mn by 2013,
although it will remain at 6.5% of the total labour force.
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