Table of Contents
Executive Summary — 7
SWOT
Analysis — 9
Colombia Political SWOT
Analysis — 9
Colombia Economic SWOT
Analysis — 10
Colombia Business Environment SWOT
Analysis — 11
Colombia Energy Market
Overview — 12
Global Oil Market
Outlook — 16
Storing Up Trouble — 16
Revised Forecasts — 18
Global Oil Market
Review — 20
One-Way Traffic — 20
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) — 23
12-Month
Demand Outlook — 23
Table: Global Oil Production
(000b/d) — 24
12-Month Supply
Outlook — 25
Longer-Term Supply And
Demand — 25
Oil Price Assumptions — 26
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 — 27
Table: Oil
Price Forecasts — 27
Global Oil Products Price
Outlook — 28
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009
(US$/bbl) — 31
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts
(US$/bbl) — 32
Global Oil Products Market
Review — 33
Regional Energy Market
Overview — 38
Oil Supply And
Demand — 38
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption
(000b/d) — 39
Table: Latin America Oil Production
(000b/d) — 40
Oil: Downstream — 41
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) — 41
Gas Supply And Demand — 42
Table: Latin America Gas
Consumption (bcm) — 42
Table: Latin America Gas Production
(bcm) — 42
Liquefied Natural Gas — 43
Table: Latin America LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) — 43
Business Environment Ranking — 44
Latin America
Region — 44
Composite Scores — 44
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating — 45
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment
Rating — 46
Upstream Scores — 46
Downstream Scores — 46
Colombia Upstream Rating –
Overview — 47
Colombia Upstream Rating – Potential
Returns — 47
Colombia Upstream Rating – Risks to
Potential Returns — 47
Colombia Downstream Rating –
Overview — 48
Colombia Downstream Rating – Potential
Returns — 48
Colombia Downstream Rating – Risks to
Potential Returns — 48
Business
Environment — 49
Legal Framework — 49
Infrastructure — 51
Labour Force — 52
Foreign Investment Policy — 53
Tax
Regime — 54
Industry Forecast
Scenario — 55
Oil And Gas
Reserves — 55
Oil Supply And
Demand — 55
Gas Supply And Demand — 56
LNG — 57
Refining And Oil Products
Trade — 57
Revenues/Import Costs — 58
Table: Colombia Oil & Gas – Historical Data &
Forecasts — 59
Other Energy — 60
Table: Colombia Other Energy – Historical Data &
Forecasts — 61
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast
Scenario — 61
Long-Term Oil & Gas
Outlook — 61
Macroeconomic
Outlook — 62
Table: Colombia - Economic
Activity — 64
Competitive
Landscape — 65
Table: Key Players – Colombian Oil &
Gas Sector — 66
Overview/State
Role — 66
Table: Key Upstream
Players — 68
Table: Key Downstream
Players — 68
Company Monitor — 69
Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos (Ecopetrol) — 69
BP
Colombia — 74
ExxonMobil Colombia — 76
Chevron Colombia — 78
Occidental de
Colombia — 80
Petrobras Colombia — 82
TEPMA Colombia (Total) — 84
RepsolYPF –
Summary — 86
Royal Dutch Shell –
Summary — 86
Solana Resources –
Summary — 86
Cepsa –
Summary — 86
Perenco –
Summary — 87
Petro Vista –
Summary — 87
Pacific Rubiales –
Summary — 88
Gran Tierra –
Summary — 88
Others –
Summary — 88
Glossary of Terms — 92
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology — 93
Introduction — 93
Ratings
Overview — 93
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment
Ratings: Structure — 94
Indicators — 95
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment
Upstream Ratings: Methodology — 95
Table: BMI Oil & Gas
Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology — 96
Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts — 98
Global Oil
Demand — 98
Table: Global Oil Demand
(000b/d) — 98
Table: Global Oil Production
(000b/d) — 99
Global Oil Supply — 99
Global Gas Demand — 100
Table: Global Gas Demand
(bcm) — 100
Global Gas Supply — 100
Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) — 101
Regional Oil
Demand — 102
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption
(000b/d) — 102
Regional Oil
Supply — 103
Table: Latin America Oil Production
(000b/d) — 103
Regional Refining
Capacity — 104
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity
(000b/d) — 104
Regional Gas
Demand — 105
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption
(bcm) — 105
Regional Gas Supply — 106
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm) — 106
Colombia
Country Overview — 106
Methodology & Risks To
Forecasts — 107
BMI Forecast
Modelling — 108
How We Generate Our Industry
Forecasts — 108
Energy Industry — 109
Cross checks — 109
Sources — 109
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