Abstract
In this updated report, BMI forecasts that Colombia will account for 4.9% of
Latin American regional
power generation by 2013, with a modest
theoretical generation surplus that may still require imports on
occasion,
particularly if drought conditions impact the vital hydro-power segment.
BMI’s Latin America
power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,125
terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 3.4% over
the previous
year. We are forecasting growth in regional generation to 1,367TWh by 2013,
representing a
rise of 21.5%.
Latin American thermal power generation
in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 438TWh, accounting for 38.9%
of the total
electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 561TWh, implying
28.1% growth,
increasing the market share of thermal generation to 41.0%
– in spite of environmental concerns that
should be promoting
renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Colombia’s thermal
generation in
2008 was an estimated 11.6TWh, or 2.64% of the regional
total. By 2013, the country is expected to
account for 2.68% of thermal
generation.
For Colombia, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for 34.4%
of 2007 primary energy demand (PED),
followed by hydro at 33.6%, gas at
23.1% and coal with an 8.8% share of PED. Regional energy demand
is
forecast to reach 744mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing
18.9% growth. Colombia’s
estimated 2008 market share of 4.94% is set
to ease to 4.92% by 2013. Colombia’s estimated 44.5TWh of
hydro
demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 51.0TWh by 2013, with its share of the
Latin America hydro
market falling from 7.01% to 6.87%.
Colombia is
now ranked second in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment rating,
thanks to its use
of renewable (mostly hydro-power) energy and relatively
low energy import dependency. Regulatory
issues and privatisation progress
beat the regional average and, although certain country risk factors
offset
some of the industry strength, the country is quite capable of
keeping Argentina at bay.
BMI is now forecasting Colombian real GDP growth
averaging 3.0% per annum between 2008 and 2013,
with the 2009 forecast
being a decline of 1.5%. Population is expected to expand from 47.9mn to
51.8mn
over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption
per capita forecast to increase by 44%
and 6%, respectively. The
country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an
estimated
46.3TWh in 2008 to 53.2TWh by the end of the forecast period.
This results in a theoretical generation
surplus, but occasional power
imports will be required if electricity generation grows at our forecast
rate
of 3.4% per annum.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an
increase in Colombian electricity generation of 51.2%,
which is mid-range
for the Latin America region. This equates to 24.0% in the 2013-2018 period,
up from
17.8% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to rise from 18.3% in
2008-2013 to 24.0% in 2013-2018,
representing 51.1% for the entire
forecast period. An increase of 39.3% in hydro-power use during 2007-
2018
is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast
to rise by 106.4%
between 2007 and 2018. More details of the longer-term
BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of
this report.
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