Abstract
A troubled recent history of hostilities and political stalemate has weighed
heavily on prospects and
prosperity of the Côte d' Ivoire. The African
nation ranks 166th out of 177 countries on the 2008 Human
Development
Index compiled by the UN Development Program. Poverty grew from 38.2% just
before
hostilities commenced in 2002 to 43.2% in 2006.
The significant
political development of the last quarter was the October 17 announcement by
the CEI
that the long-awaited presidential elections, which were initially
scheduled to take place on November 30,
would be delayed until 2009.
Indeed, both the ruling Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) and the former rebel
New Forces (NF) had stressed that ongoing delays to the voter registration
process and the reintegration
of former rebels would make a successful
holding of the polls increasingly unlikely. The CEI had also
acknowledged
that it had been facing considerable logistical obstacles in jump-starting the
registration
program throughout Côte d' Ivoire, resulting in very few
voter registrations in the early days of the
program. Delayed elections,
of course, mean that any political fallout and instability that may
eventuate
following the elections is also delayed, and that the future
political landscape of the Cote d’Ivoire cannot
be clearly
anticipated at this time.
On the economic front, it is clear that the
Côte d' Ivoire continues to benefit from the strong goodwill of
the
international financial agencies and donors. The IMF announced in December
2008 that the country is
ready to begin the long process towards deep and
unconditional debt forgiveness. Success will not be
easily achieved, but
with policy discipline the rewards available are highly significant. The IMF
has
traditionally required a period of proven policy discipline (typically
one year) before lending to a
developing country with a history of
external payment arrears. By the nature of its mandate, the World
Bank
(WB) has always been inclined to be more accommodating, but has waited for the
IMF seal of
approval in order to avoid sending mixed signals to the
country involved. Nonetheless, over the past few
years both institutions
have accepted that states emerging from serious internal conflict are a
special case
-- and deserve assistance not only after political unity is
in place, but also during the quest for that goal.
This can only be good
news for the Cote d’Ivoire.
The past serious internal conflict in
the Côte d’Ivoire has significantly impacted on its business
environment. The stabilisation of the political situation and the potential
for long-anticipated elections to
take place in 2009 suggest that
significant improvements could be on the cards over the coming years.
However, the challenges are considerable. Aside from a frail physical
infrastructure and low education
levels, the country' s institutions --
especially the judicial system -- remain weak and plagued by
corruption.
Moreover, personal security on the ground is likely to remain compromised by
high crime
levels and inefficient law enforcement over the medium
term.
Major developments in the infrastructure sector in the last quarter
include the ramping up of production
by international oil and gas producer
Afren, and the go-ahead being given for the unrolling of biometric
systems
at Abidjan airport, a major transport hub. In December 2008, Afren reported
that gross
production from the CI-11 fields and the gas plant have
improved by an average of about 700 barrels of
oil equivalent per day
since the company assumed the role of operator of the assets. Meanwhile,
European
biometrics specialist Zetes has been chosen to supply the airport
with biometric registration equipment.
Major indigenous and foreign
companies with a presence in the Côte d’Ivoire’s
infrastructure sector
include Afren, Azito Energie, Bouygues, China
Geo-Engineering Corporation, Petroci, Saipem,
Solel Boneh International
Ltd., Technip, and Vinci.
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