Abstract
A troubled recent history of hostilities and political stalemate has weighed
heavily on the prospects and
prosperity of Côte d' Ivoire. The African
nation ranks 166th out of 177 countries on the 2008 Human
Development
Index, compiled by the UN Development Program. Poverty grew from 38.2% just
before
hostilities commenced in 2002 to 43.2% in 2006.
The repeated
postponement of elections only drags the political stalemate out. The country
hasn’t held an
election since 2000 and President Laurent
Gbagbo’s mandate expired in 2005. The latest delay stems
from
problems registering voters. At the moment, no date has been set for
elections. Delayed elections, of
course, mean that any political fallout
and instability that may eventuate following the elections is also
delayed, and that the future political landscape of Côte d’Ivoire
cannot be clearly anticipated at this time.
Despite the uncertainty, the
government announced some infrastructure ambitions in the latest quarter.
Two big oil refinery projects were announced in the latest quarter. Reports
said the government wants to
double electricity generating capacity by
2016 and that it has ambitious plans to improve the roads that
connect
cocoa farmers to their markets. But announcements are one thing, and
accomplishments another.
BMI continues to forecast economic growth in
2009, although the current expectation is that real growth
will be only
2.1%, a performance that would be an improvement on the estimated 1.6% growth
in 2008.
The pace of growth will pick up to 3.7% in 2010 and then to 5.3%
in 2011. Exports are expected to slump
by more than US$2bn, to US$7.75bn
this year. Imports are also expected to fall. For a country that relies
on
customs duties for a significant share of its budget, such a slowdown in trade
could be painful.
The stabilisation of the political situation and the
potential for elections in 2009 suggest that significant
improvements to
the country’s business environment could be on the cards over the coming
years.
However, the challenges are considerable. Aside from a frail
physical infrastructure and low education
levels, the country' s
institutions – especially the judicial system – remain weak and
plagued by
corruption.
The country now faces the added problem of the
global economic slowdown. The IMF says a ’third
wave‘ of the
economic crisis is about to hit the world’s poorest countries, including
those in Africa.
Major indigenous and foreign companies with a presence in
Côte d’Ivoire’s infrastructure sector include
Bouygues,
China Geo-Engineering Corporation, Saipem, Solel Boneh International Ltd.,
Technip
and Vinci.
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