Table of Contents
Executive Summary — 6
Ecuador Energy Market
Overview — 8
Global Oil Market
Outlook — 12
Storing Up Trouble — 12
Revised Forecasts — 14
Global Oil Market
Review — 16
One-Way Traffic — 16
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) — 19
12-Month
Demand Outlook — 19
Table: Global Oil Production
(000b/d) — 20
12-Month Supply
Outlook — 21
Longer-Term Supply And
Demand — 21
Oil Price Assumptions — 22
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 — 23
Table: Oil
Price Forecasts — 23
Global Oil Products Price
Outlook — 24
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009
(US$/bbl) — 27
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts
(US$/bbl) — 28
Global Oil Products Market
Review — 29
Regional Energy Market
Overview — 34
Oil Supply And
Demand — 34
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption
(000b/d) — 35
Table: Latin America Oil Production
(000b/d) — 36
Oil: Downstream — 37
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) — 37
Gas Supply And Demand — 38
Table: Latin America Gas
Consumption (bcm) — 38
Table: Latin America Gas Production
(bcm) — 38
Liquefied Natural Gas — 39
Table: Latin America LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) — 39
Business Environment Ranking — 40
Latin America
Region — 40
Composite Scores — 40
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating — 41
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment
Rating — 42
Upstream Scores — 42
Downstream Scores — 42
Ecuador Upstream Rating –
Overview — 43
Ecuador Upstream Rating – Potential
Returns — 43
Ecuador Upstream Rating – Risks to
Potential Returns — 43
Ecuador Downstream Rating –
Overview — 43
Ecuador Downstream Rating – Potential
Returns — 44
Ecuador Downstream Rating – Risks to
Potential Returns — 44
Risk
Summary — 45
Political — 45
Economic — 45
Business
Environment — 45
Industry Forecast
Scenario — 46
Oil And Gas
Reserves — 46
Oil Supply And
Demand — 46
Gas Supply And Demand — 47
Refining And Oil Products Trade — 47
Revenues/Import
Costs — 48
Table: Ecuador Oil & Gas – Historical
Data & Forecasts — 49
Other
Energy — 50
Table: Ecuador Other Energy – Historical
Data & Forecasts — 50
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast
Scenario — 50
Long-Term Oil & Gas
Outlook — 51
Macroeconomic
Outlook — 52
Table: Ecuador – Macroeconomic
Forecast — 53
Competitive
Landscape — 54
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign
Companies — 55
Overview/State
Role — 55
Table: Key Upstream
Players — 58
Table: Key Downstream
Players — 58
Company Monitor — 59
Petroecuador — 59
Eni Ecuador — 63
Petrobras de Ecuador — 65
Perenco Ecuador
Ltd — 68
Andes Petroleum –
Summary — 70
Occidental –
Summary — 70
Teikoku Oil –
Summary — 71
Repsol YPF –
Summary — 71
Sinopec –
Summary — 72
ConocoPhillips –
Summary — 72
Noble –
Summary — 72
Others –
Summary — 72
Glossary of Terms — 74
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology — 75
Introduction — 75
Ratings
Overview — 75
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment
Ratings: Structure — 76
Indicators — 77
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment
Upstream Ratings: Methodology — 77
Table: BMI Oil & Gas
Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology — 78
Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts — 80
Global Oil
Demand — 80
Table: Global Oil Demand
(000b/d) — 80
Table: Global Oil Production
(000b/d) — 81
Global Oil Supply — 81
Global Gas Demand — 82
Table: Global Gas Demand
(bcm) — 82
Global Gas Supply — 82
Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) — 83
Regional Oil
Demand — 84
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption
(000b/d) — 84
Regional Oil Supply — 85
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d) — 85
Regional
Refining Capacity — 86
Table: Latin America Oil Refining
Capacity (000b/d) — 86
Regional Gas
Demand — 87
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption
(bcm) — 87
Regional Gas Supply — 88
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm) — 88
Ecuador
Country Overview — 88
Methodology & Risks To
Forecasts — 89
BMI Forecast
Modelling — 90
How We Generate Our Industry
Forecasts — 90
Energy Industry — 91
Cross checks — 91
Sources — 91
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