Abstract
The new Egypt Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account
for 9.7% of Middle
East/Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2013,
with a modest theoretical generation surplus.
BMI’s MEA power
generation estimate for 2008 is 1,178 terawatt hours (twh), representing an
increase
of 5.5% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in
regional generation to 1,523twh by
2013, representing a rise of 29.3%
between 2008 and the end of the period.
Thermal power generation in 2008
is estimated by BMI at 1,100twh, accounting for 93.4% of the total
electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,414twh,
implying 35.7% growth that reduces
slightly the market share of thermal
generation to 92.8% – thanks in part to environmental concerns
promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Egypt’s
thermal generation in 2008 was
an estimated 110twh, or 10.0% of the
regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 9.1%
of
thermal generation.
For Egypt, oil was in 2007 the dominant fuel,
accounting for 48.4% of primary energy demand (PED),
followed by gas at
45.6% and hydro with a 4.6% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast
to
reach 853mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 19.6%
growth over the period since
2008. Egypt’s estimated 2008 market
share of 9.3% is set to rise to 9.7% by 2013. The country’s
estimated 14.9twh of hydro generation in 2008 is forecast to reach 18.7twh by
2013, with its share of the
MEA hydro market falling from 34.6% to 32.4%
over the period.
Egypt is once again ranked second, having been overtaken
by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), in BMI’s
updated Power Business
Environment rating, reflecting its market size and high proportion of
renewables
(hydropower) use. While the regulatory environment is not
particularly attractive, the power sector is
modestly competitive, with
some progress towards privatisation. Egypt is just one point behind the
UAE
and can be expected to mount a fresh challenge for regional leadership
during the next few quarters.
BMI is forecasting real GDP growth averaging
4.2% per annum between 2008 and 2013, with the 2009
forecast being 1.8%.
Population is expected to expand from 76.3mn to 82.8mn over the period, with
GDP
per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase
by 78% and 9%, respectively. The
country’s power consumption is
expected to increase from an estimated 108twh in 2008 to 128twh by the
end
of the forecast period, while theoretical surplus capacity is forecast to be
20twh in 2013, assuming
3.7% annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2007 and 2018 we are forecasting an increase in Egyptian electricity
generation of 58.4%, which
is towards the lower end of the range for the
MEA region. This equates to 27.6% in the 2013-2018 period,
up from 18.2%
in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to decrease from 25.9% in 2008-2013 to
19.3%,
representing 56.9% for the entire forecast period. An increase of
69.5% in hydropower use during 2007-
2018 is one key element of generation
growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 56.9%
between 2007
and 2018. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found in
the
Appendix of this report.
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